Michigan @ Maryland: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2025)

Sat, Nov 22, 2025, 4:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Maryland · Conference game

Weather at kickoff54°F7 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

Michigan

8-2 · Power #21

▲ winner

Final

Maryland

4-6 · Power #72

final

Closing spread

MICH -13.5

✓ MICH W

Total

46.5

▲ Over · 65 pts

Model before kickoff

MICH 30–17 MD

✓ MICH (83%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMICH -13.5

CloseMICH -13.5

Total45.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMICH -13.5

no move

CloseMICH -13.5

No change since the open

Total

Open45.5

▲ 1

Close46.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MICH -13.5 · unchangedmodel MICH -12

model MICH -12

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 12.5–14.5 since 2023: won 78%, covered 45% (82 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMICH -13.5

CloseMICH -13.5

Total45.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MICH as a 13.5-point road favorite at MD, the favorite won 8, covered 4, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: MICH won 45–20; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 65 points went over 46.5, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 80%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.6 against an average line of 11.9; 51.4 points a game (usually 53.8). Of the 6 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LSU @ TA&M 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & total	-10	23–38	L	O47.5
Very close	TEX @ UK 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total	-12.5	16–13	L	U45.5
Very close	SMU @ DUKE 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & total	-11.5	28–27	L	O49.5
Very close	MIA @ BC 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar season form & situation	-10	45–20	W	O50.25
Very close	ALA @ AUB 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-14.5	27–24	L	O48
Very close	ORE @ MICH 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & total	-14.5	38–17	W	O45.5
Very close	ALA @ SC 2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & total	-11.5	29–22	L	O47.5
Very close	ALA @ MSST 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & season form	-14.5	40–17	W	O46.5
Very close	CLEM @ NCSU 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-10	17–24	L	U44.5
Very close	WISC @ NU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & total	-10	42–7	W	O44.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MICH LWLLL	3-7	30%	1-4	3-5
MD WWLLL	5-5	50%	3-3	4-3

Venue/role: MICH away, as favorite; MD home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MICH UUOUO	5-5	50%	8-2
MD OUOUU	3-7	30%	4-6

Went over in Q3. Of 483 earlier overs in games with totals 42.5–50.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MICH	8-2 80%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%
MD	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

MICH 1–0 MD MICH leads · 1 game since 2023 · MICH has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 18 2023	Michigan 31 @ Maryland 24	MICH -18	MD W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MICH+12.2 →+13.9▲ 1.7#19

MD+2.1 →+0.7▼ 1.4#63

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

MICH

Longer bar = better

#46

Offense

◀ MICH better

#99

#32

Defense

◀ MICH better

#55

+0.3 #45

Turnovers

MD better ▶

+0.8 #16

65 plays #98

Pace

Even

65 plays #88

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MICH has the ball

Even matchup

	MICH off	MD def	Edge
Points / game	27.7 #68	23.5 #62	Even
Yards / play	6.47 #26	5.46 #62	MICH
PPA / play	+0.16 #50	+0.01 #24	MD
Success rate	45% #39	42% #73	MICH

When MD has the ball

Advantage: MICH defense

	MD off	MICH def	Edge
Points / game	23.4 #101	17.7 #12	MICH
Yards / play	5.28 #98	4.62 #14	MICH
PPA / play	+0.07 #96	+0.01 #29	MICH
Success rate	40% #102	42% #71	MICH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

MICH scoring against the MD defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MICH scored	6.9 #52	6.2 #105	13.1 #88	8.2 #25	6.4 #79	14.6 #42
MD allowed	2.8 #19	6.8 #54	9.6 #22	5.4 #61	8.5 #119	13.9 #100

MD scoring against the MICH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MD scored	5.7 #73	9.9 #48	15.6 #58	5.1 #89	2.7 #134	7.8 #128
MICH allowed	2.1 #5	7.1 #63	9.2 #19	2.7 #11	5.8 #49	8.5 #16

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.