TCU @ Houston: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2025)

Sat, Nov 22, 2025, 4:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Houston · Conference game

Weather at kickoff78°F5 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

TCU

6-4 · Power #33

▲ winner

Final

Houston

8-2 · Power #49

final

Closing spread

TCU -1.5

✓ TCU W

Total

55.5

▼ Under · 31 pts

Model before kickoff

TCU 28–27 HOU

✓ TCU (55%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenHOU -2.5

CloseTCU -1.5

Total54.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenHOU -2.5

4 → TCU

CloseTCU -1.5

4 pts toward TCU

Total

Open54.5

▲ 1

Close55.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened HOU -2.5 · closed TCU -1.5 · moved 4 toward TCUmodel TCU -2.5

model TCU -2.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 53%, covered 50% (155 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 45% (152 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenHOU -2.5

CloseTCU -1.5

Total54.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TCU as a 1.5-point road favorite at HOU, the favorite won 3, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: TCU won 17–14; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 31 points stayed under 55.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.1 against an average line of 2.5; 54.5 points a game (usually 53). Of the 3 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	KU @ BAY 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar situation & spread	-1.5	17–45	L	P62
Close	UNC @ DUKE 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & total	-1.5	20–21	L	U55.5
Close	UCF @ FLA 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-1	13–24	L	U62
Close	TTU @ BAY 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar team ratings & situation	-2.5	39–14	W	U59.5
Close	ARIZ @ HOU 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & situation	-2	28–31	L	O47.5
Close	APP @ MRSH 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & season form	-2	21–28	L	O47.5
Close	TULN @ UTSA 2025 · Week 10 · close · similar season form & situation	-6	26–48	L	O54.5
Close	ARK @ MIZ 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar total & situation	-3	27–29	L	O55.5
Close	VT @ BC 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	48–22	W	O48.5
Close	LSU @ ARK 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & total	-3	34–10	W	U57

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TCU LWLLL	3-7	30%	1-4	3-5
HOU WWWLW	7-3	70%	3-2	3-1

Venue/role: TCU away, as favorite; HOU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TCU OOUUO	5-5	50%	6-4
HOU OOUOO	7-3	70%	8-2

Stayed under: it needed 28 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 51% of games with totals 51.5–59.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TCU	6-4 60%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%
HOU	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

TCU 1–1 HOU Series tied · 2 games since 2023 · HOU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 4 2024	Houston 30 @ TCU 19	TCU -16.5	HOU W
Sep 16 2023	TCU 36 @ Houston 13	TCU -7.5	TCU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TCU+7.9 →+7.5▼ 0.4#41

HOU−1.8 →+3.1▲ 4.9#56

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

TCU

Longer bar = better

HOU

#50

Offense

◀ TCU better

#80

#66

Defense

HOU better ▶

#40

+0.2 #55

Turnovers

◀ TCU better

−0.1 #88

68 plays #48

Pace

Even

70 plays #37

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TCU has the ball

Even matchup

	TCU off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	30.7 #48	22.1 #46	Even
Yards / play	6.06 #43	5.02 #32	Even
PPA / play	+0.16 #49	+0.03 #39	Even
Success rate	43% #59	39% #41	Even

When HOU has the ball

Even matchup

	HOU off	TCU def	Edge
Points / game	29.5 #60	26.5 #84	HOU
Yards / play	5.59 #71	5.29 #53	Even
PPA / play	+0.05 #103	+0.07 #62	TCU
Success rate	41% #87	41% #65	TCU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

TCU scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TCU scored	4.5 #103	10.9 #24	15.4 #60	6.6 #51	8.7 #31	15.3 #35
HOU allowed	6.0 #85	6.5 #44	12.5 #64	1.9 #3	7.7 #103	9.6 #34

HOU scoring against the TCU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	5.4 #85	10.0 #45	15.4 #60	7.1 #42	6.7 #69	13.8 #51
TCU allowed	3.3 #31	7.6 #78	10.9 #41	5.4 #61	10.2 #133	15.6 #126

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.