TCU @ BYU: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2025)

Sat, Nov 15, 2025, 10:15 PM ESTWeek 12 · at BYU · Conference game

Weather at kickoff54°F3 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

TCU

6-3 · Power #33

final

Final

BYU

8-1 · Power #19

▲ winner

Closing spread

BYU -2.5

✓ BYU W

Total

51.5

▲ Over · 57 pts

Model before kickoff

TCU 25–29 BYU

✓ BYU (61%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBYU -4.5

CloseBYU -2.5

Total51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBYU -4.5

2 → TCU

CloseBYU -2.5

2 pts toward TCU

Total

Open51.5

no move

Close51.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BYU -4.5 · closed BYU -2.5 · moved 2 toward TCUmodel BYU -9.5

model BYU -9.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 60%, covered 52% (302 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 46% (106 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBYU -4.5

CloseBYU -2.5

Total51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BYU as a 2.5-point home favorite against TCU, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: BYU won 44–13; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 57 points went over 51.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 3 against an average line of 3.5; 51.8 points a game (usually 53). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BYU vs KU 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	13–17	L	U55.5
Very close	ASU vs UCF 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	35–31	W	O55.5
Very close	ISU vs KSU 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & total	-2	29–21	W	U51.5
Very close	ISU vs CIN 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & season form	-7	34–17	W	U52.5
Very close	MISS vs TA&M 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3	38–35	P	O52.5
Very close	ARIZ vs KU 2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & season form	-5.5	24–20	L	U56.5
Very close	WASH vs ILL 2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar season form & spread	-3.5	42–25	W	O54.5
Very close	NCST vs FSU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	19–17	L	U50.5
Very close	BAY vs KSU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	3–31	L	U52.25
Very close	FRES vs BOIS 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	37–30	W	O54.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TCU LLWLL	3-6	33%	1-3	0-1
BYU LWWWL	6-3	67%	3-1	4-2

Venue/role: TCU away, as underdog; BYU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TCU UOOUU	4-5	44%	6-3
BYU OOUO–	4-4	50%	8-1

Went over in Q4. Of 635 earlier overs in games with totals 47.5–55.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TCU	7-3 70%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
BYU	9-1 90%	7-3 70%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

TCU 1–0 BYU TCU leads · 1 game since 2023 · TCU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 14 2023	BYU 11 @ TCU 44	TCU -5.5	TCU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TCU+7.9 →+9.0▲ 1.1#33

BYU+7.8 →+12.7▲ 4.9#20

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

TCU

Longer bar = better

BYU

#44

Offense

Even

#47

#51

Defense

BYU better ▶

#23

+0.3 #39

Turnovers

BYU better ▶

+0.8 #19

69 plays #38

Pace

◀ TCU faster

67 plays #66

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TCU has the ball

Even matchup

	TCU off	BYU def	Edge
Points / game	32.7 #35	18.3 #16	Even
Yards / play	6.14 #38	4.92 #24	Even
PPA / play	+0.16 #47	0.00 #22	BYU
Success rate	44% #55	39% #31	BYU

When BYU has the ball

Even matchup

	BYU off	TCU def	Edge
Points / game	33.0 #32	24.6 #73	BYU
Yards / play	6.19 #36	5.19 #42	Even
PPA / play	+0.15 #54	+0.04 #43	Even
Success rate	43% #66	40% #45	TCU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

TCU scoring against the BYU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TCU scored	5.0 #89	11.0 #24	16.0 #53	7.0 #45	9.7 #17	16.7 #23
BYU allowed	5.7 #74	4.1 #9	9.8 #29	2.9 #13	5.3 #43	8.2 #16

BYU scoring against the TCU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BYU scored	6.8 #52	10.4 #29	17.2 #40	4.8 #95	10.0 #11	14.8 #42
TCU allowed	2.6 #14	6.6 #46	9.1 #21	5.7 #79	9.8 #130	15.4 #126

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.