Arizona @ Cincinnati: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2025)

Sat, Nov 15, 2025, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Cincinnati · Conference game

Weather at kickoff64°F11 mphgusts 26DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Arizona

6-3 · Power #26

▲ winner

Final

Cincinnati

7-2 · Power #58

final

Closing spread

CIN -6.5

✓ ARIZ W

Total

56.5

▼ Under · 54 pts

Model before kickoff

ARIZ 24–30 CIN

✗ CIN (66%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCIN -5.5

CloseCIN -6.5

Total56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCIN -5.5

1 → CIN

CloseCIN -6.5

1 pt toward Cincinnati

Total

Open56.5

no move

Close56.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CIN -5.5 · closed CIN -6.5 · moved 1 toward CINmodel CIN -3

model CIN -3

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 69%, covered 55% (222 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 49% (241 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCIN -5.5

CloseCIN -6.5

Total56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CIN as a 6.5-point home favorite against ARIZ, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 1 went over the total.

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This game: ARIZ won 30–24 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 54 points stayed under 56.5, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 67%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

1 of 911%

Below normal · usually 50%

Overs below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 11.3 against an average line of 5.9; 45.5 points a game (usually 53.2). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TCU vs ISU 2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	17–20	L	U58.5
Very close	DUKE vs GT 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	18–27	L	U60.5
Very close	UNC vs SYR 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & total	-9.5	40–7	W	U59
Very close	TULN vs UCF 2022 · Week 14 · very close · similar total & season form	-3.5	45–28	W	O57.5
Very close	KSU vs ASU 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & rest	-7.5	14–24	L	U51.5
Very close	KSU vs TCU 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & season form	-5.5	41–3	W	U60
Very close	LOU vs PITT 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & season form	-7.5	37–9	W	U57.5
Very close	COLO vs CIN 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & spread	-6	34–23	W	P57
Very close	BOIS vs UNLV 2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar season form & total	-4	21–7	W	U57.5
Very close	TXST vs UL 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar season form & situation	-4	17–23	L	U60.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ARIZ WLLWL	5-4	56%	1-2	1-2
CIN WLWWL	5-3	63%	2-2	3-2

Venue/role: ARIZ away, as underdog; CIN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARIZ UOOOU	4-5	44%	6-3
CIN OUOUO	6-3	67%	7-2

Stayed under: it needed 20 in the 4th quarter and got 17. 51% of games with totals 52.5–60.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARIZ	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
CIN	7-3 70%	5-4 56%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

ARIZ 2–0 CIN ARIZ leads · 2 games since 2025 · ARIZ has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ARIZ−2.1 →+7.5▲ 9.6#40

CIN+3.5 →+6.9▲ 3.4#43

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

ARIZ

Longer bar = better

CIN

#52

Offense

CIN better ▶

#10

#26

Defense

◀ ARIZ better

#76

+0.9 #15

Turnovers

◀ ARIZ better

+0.2 #54

68 plays #53

Pace

◀ ARIZ faster

60 plays #132

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ARIZ has the ball

Advantage: ARIZ offense

	ARIZ off	CIN def	Edge
Points / game	33.0 #33	21.9 #47	Even
Yards / play	6.00 #52	5.37 #59	Even
PPA / play	+0.18 #44	+0.15 #99	ARIZ
Success rate	42% #78	44% #99	ARIZ

When CIN has the ball

Even matchup

	CIN off	ARIZ def	Edge
Points / game	35.6 #20	19.9 #25	Even
Yards / play	7.29 #5	4.48 #10	Even
PPA / play	+0.33 #5	+0.01 #31	CIN
Success rate	51% #8	39% #36	CIN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

ARIZ scoring against the CIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARIZ scored	10.8 #7	9.4 #53	20.2 #16	7.7 #30	4.8 #117	12.4 #75
CIN allowed	2.7 #17	7.0 #63	9.7 #27	6.1 #92	6.1 #61	12.2 #76

CIN scoring against the ARIZ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CIN scored	11.6 #4	11.4 #20	23.0 #5	4.9 #92	7.7 #48	12.6 #71
ARIZ allowed	5.0 #58	5.7 #31	10.7 #41	5.0 #56	3.2 #8	8.2 #18

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.