Cincinnati @ Utah: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2025)

Sat, Nov 1, 2025, 10:15 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Utah · Conference game

Weather at kickoff52°F2 mphDryWeather watch ›

Cincinnati

7-1 · Power #58

final

Final

Utah

6-2 · Power #8

▲ winner

Closing spread

UTAH -9.5

✓ UTAH W

Total

58.5

▲ Over · 59 pts

Model before kickoff

CIN 22–33 UTAH

✓ UTAH (79%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUTAH -7.5

CloseUTAH -9.5

Total57.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUTAH -7.5

2 → UTAH

CloseUTAH -9.5

2 pts toward Utah

Total

Open57.5

▲ 1

Close58.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UTAH -7.5 · closed UTAH -9.5 · moved 2 toward UTAHmodel UTAH -18

model UTAH -18

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 8.5–10.5 since 2023: won 77%, covered 43% (132 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 51% (212 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUTAH -7.5

CloseUTAH -9.5

Total57.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UTAH as a 9.5-point home favorite against CIN, the favorite won 9, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: UTAH won 45–14; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 59 points went over 58.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 74%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 13.8 against an average line of 11.2; 61.2 points a game (usually 54.1). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	FSU vs PITT 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & season form	-10.5	31–34	L	O57
Close	KSU vs KU 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & total	-10	29–27	L	P56
Close	OU vs WVU 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & rest	-13	59–20	W	O59.5
Close	UTAH vs ORST 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-10.5	42–16	W	O54
Close	NCST vs TTU 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & total	-10.5	27–14	W	U55.75
Close	MISS vs ARK 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-13	27–20	L	U62
Close	FSU vs FLA 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & total	-10	45–38	L	O58
Close	TEX vs BAY 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-10	38–27	W	O55.25
Close	USC vs WSU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & season form	-12.5	30–14	W	U64.5
Close	KSU vs KU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & situation	-12	47–27	W	O62

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CIN WWLWW	5-2	71%	2-0	2-0
UTAH LWWLW	6-2	75%	3-1	6-2

Venue/role: CIN away, as underdog; UTAH home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CIN OOUOU	5-3	63%	7-1
UTAH UOOUO	5-3	63%	6-2

Went over in Q4. Of 396 earlier overs in games with totals 54.5–62.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CIN	7-3 70%	5-4 56%	6-4 60%
UTAH	7-3 70%	8-2 80%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CIN+3.5 →+7.9▲ 4.4#38

UTAH+4.1 →+18.8▲ 14.7#9

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

CIN

Longer bar = better

UTAH

Offense

Even

#16

#68

Defense

UTAH better ▶

#10

+0.4 #43

Turnovers

◀ CIN better

0.0 #71

60 plays #133

Pace

UTAH faster ▶

74 plays #11

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CIN has the ball

Even matchup

	CIN off	UTAH def	Edge
Points / game	38.3 #11	14.3 #8	Even
Yards / play	7.36 #5	4.48 #12	Even
PPA / play	+0.36 #3	−0.08 #8	Even
Success rate	52% #7	35% #10	Even

When UTAH has the ball

Advantage: UTAH offense

	UTAH off	CIN def	Edge
Points / game	38.9 #10	19.0 #24	Even
Yards / play	6.48 #26	5.32 #58	UTAH
PPA / play	+0.29 #15	+0.13 #90	UTAH
Success rate	50% #11	44% #100	UTAH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

CIN scoring against the UTAH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CIN scored	12.1 #3	12.9 #7	25.0 #3	4.6 #97	8.6 #33	13.3 #63
UTAH allowed	1.6 #4	2.9 #4	4.5 #3	2.1 #9	7.6 #102	9.8 #36

UTAH scoring against the CIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTAH scored	8.5 #21	11.9 #18	20.4 #13	8.6 #23	9.9 #17	18.5 #11
CIN allowed	1.3 #2	6.6 #59	7.9 #13	5.1 #61	6.0 #55	11.1 #56

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.