Arizona State @ Iowa State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2025)

Sat, Nov 1, 2025, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Iowa State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff45°F11 mphgusts 24Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Arizona State

5-3 · Power #41

▲ winner

Final

Iowa State

5-3 · Power #36

final

Closing spread

ISU -8.5

✓ ASU W

Total

48.5

▼ Under · 43 pts

Model before kickoff

ASU 20–27 ISU

✗ ISU (70%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenISU -3.5

CloseISU -8.5

Total50.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenISU -3.5

5 → ISU

CloseISU -8.5

5 pts toward Iowa State

Total

Open50.5

▼ 2

Close48.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ISU -3.5 · closed ISU -8.5 · moved 5 toward ISUmodel ISU -3.5

model ISU -3.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 7.5–9.5 since 2023: won 73%, covered 50% (142 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 58% (71 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenISU -3.5

CloseISU -8.5

Total50.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ISU as an 8.5-point home favorite against ASU, the favorite won 8, covered 8, and 4 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: ASU won 24–19 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 43 points stayed under 48.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 14.3 against an average line of 8.4; 46.5 points a game (usually 53.7). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	WVU vs BYU 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & total	-12.5	37–7	W	U48.5
Close	SC vs UK 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	17–14	W	U52.5
Close	VT vs GT 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-11	21–6	W	U52
Close	BOIS vs FRES 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-10.5	40–20	W	O45
Close	UCF vs UTAH 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar situation & season form	-10	14–28	L	U46.5
Close	TROY vs USA 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & rest	-6.5	28–10	W	U43.5
Close	CIN vs ASU 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & total	-5	24–14	W	U51
Close	ARIZ vs WVU 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	26–31	L	O51.5
Close	PITT vs BC 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar rest	-6.5	48–7	W	O54.5
Close	COLO vs UTAH 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-13.5	49–24	W	O43.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ASU WWLWL	4-4	50%	1-2	2-1
ISU LWLLL	3-5	38%	2-2	2-4

Venue/role: ASU away, as underdog; ISU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ASU UUOUU	2-6	25%	5-3
ISU UOOUO	4-4	50%	5-3

Stayed under: it needed 6 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 54% of games with totals 44.5–52.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ASU	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
ISU	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

ASU 1–0 ISU ASU leads · 1 game since 2023 · ASU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 7 2024	Iowa State 19 @ Arizona State 45	ISU -1.5	ASU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ASU+11.1 →+8.7▼ 2.4#33

ISU+7.6 →+8.7▲ 1.1#34

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

ASU

Longer bar = better

ISU

#86

Offense

ISU better ▶

#49

#63

Defense

Even

#52

+0.6 #26

Turnovers

◀ ASU better

−0.1 #79

74 plays #7

Pace

◀ ASU faster

69 plays #41

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ASU has the ball

Advantage: ISU defense

	ASU off	ISU def	Edge
Points / game	24.8 #89	21.8 #49	ISU
Yards / play	5.42 #92	5.62 #78	Even
PPA / play	+0.13 #72	+0.05 #45	ISU
Success rate	42% #90	39% #35	ISU

When ISU has the ball

Even matchup

	ISU off	ASU def	Edge
Points / game	29.0 #67	24.3 #68	Even
Yards / play	6.06 #49	5.13 #43	Even
PPA / play	+0.19 #40	+0.08 #61	ISU
Success rate	46% #38	42% #79	ISU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

ASU scoring against the ISU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ASU scored	3.3 #124	6.3 #104	9.5 #117	6.9 #49	8.4 #41	15.3 #40
ISU allowed	4.8 #53	7.3 #75	12.0 #62	4.6 #52	5.1 #41	9.8 #34

ISU scoring against the ASU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ISU scored	7.6 #39	9.3 #60	16.9 #50	6.5 #63	5.6 #95	12.1 #80
ASU allowed	5.0 #61	6.4 #53	11.4 #51	6.0 #86	6.9 #80	12.9 #90

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.