UCF @ Baylor: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2025)

Sat, Nov 1, 2025, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Baylor · Conference game

Weather at kickoff57°F4 mphgusts 9Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

UCF

4-3 · Power #66

final

Final

Baylor

4-4 · Power #50

▲ winner

Closing spread

BAY -3.5

✓ BAY W

Total

58.5

▼ Under · 33 pts

Model before kickoff

UCF 28–32 BAY

✓ BAY (59%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBAY -4.5

CloseBAY -3.5

Total60.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBAY -4.5

1 → UCF

CloseBAY -3.5

1 pt toward UCF

Total

Open60.5

▼ 2

Close58.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BAY -4.5 · closed BAY -3.5 · moved 1 toward UCFmodel BAY -2

model BAY -2

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 60%, covered 50% (271 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 48% (258 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBAY -4.5

CloseBAY -3.5

Total60.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BAY as a 3.5-point home favorite against UCF, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: BAY won 30–3; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 33 points stayed under 58.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.8 against an average line of 2.4; 57.6 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UCF vs CIN 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	13–19	L	U58
Close	DUKE vs NCSU 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar total & spread	-3	45–33	W	O57.5
Close	TTU vs UCF 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	24–23	L	U59.5
Close	TTU vs TCU 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	35–28	W	O59.5
Close	TTU vs BAY 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & situation	-1.5	17–45	L	O61
Close	UNC vs NCSU 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar situation & spread	-2	30–35	L	O54.5
Close	ARK vs AUB 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar total & situation	-2.5	24–33	L	O56
Close	TTU vs KU 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	43–28	W	O63.5
Close	LOU vs PITT 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar total & situation	-1.5	24–10	W	U55
Close	TTU vs WVU 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	52–15	W	O62.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UCF WLLWW	4-3	57%	1-1	1-2
BAY LLLLL	1-7	13%	0-4	0-5

Venue/role: UCF away, as underdog; BAY home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UCF UOUUO	3-4	43%	4-3
BAY UOOOU	5-3	63%	4-4

Stayed under: it needed 33 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 49% of games with totals 54.5–62.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UCF	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
BAY	5-5 50%	2-8 20%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

UCF 0–1 BAY BAY leads · 1 game since 2023 · BAY has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 30 2023	Baylor 36 @ UCF 35	UCF -8	BAY W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UCF+6.8 →+6.3▼ 0.5#45

BAY+6.9 →+5.2▼ 1.7#49

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

UCF

Longer bar = better

BAY

#58

Offense

Even

#44

#28

Defense

◀ UCF better

#101

0.0 #67

Turnovers

◀ UCF better

−1.1 #132

70 plays #31

Pace

BAY faster ▶

75 plays #4

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UCF has the ball

Advantage: UCF offense

	UCF off	BAY def	Edge
Points / game	30.7 #54	32.6 #120	UCF
Yards / play	6.33 #31	5.63 #80	UCF
PPA / play	+0.17 #48	+0.14 #95	UCF
Success rate	41% #97	45% #108	Even

When BAY has the ball

Even matchup

	BAY off	UCF def	Edge
Points / game	34.3 #34	17.1 #16	Even
Yards / play	6.12 #47	4.63 #17	UCF
PPA / play	+0.16 #53	+0.02 #30	UCF
Success rate	45% #43	40% #49	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

UCF scoring against the BAY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UCF scored	8.4 #24	6.4 #102	14.9 #69	7.9 #31	8.0 #49	15.9 #36
BAY allowed	6.9 #101	10.6 #118	17.5 #123	6.0 #83	8.3 #112	14.3 #111

BAY scoring against the UCF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BAY scored	4.6 #102	12.5 #10	17.1 #44	3.9 #118	12.0 #2	15.9 #34
UCF allowed	1.0 #3	7.3 #77	8.3 #19	5.1 #66	3.7 #13	8.9 #31

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.