Houston @ UCF: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2025)

Fri, Nov 7, 2025, 8:15 PM ESTWeek 11 · at UCF · Conference game

Weather at kickoff76°F2 mphDryWeather watch ›

Houston

7-2 · Power #49

▲ winner

Final

UCF

4-4 · Power #66

final

Closing spread

UCF -1.5

✓ HOU W

Total

47.5

▲ Over · 57 pts

Model before kickoff

HOU 22–24 UCF

✗ UCF (56%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenHOU -2.5

CloseUCF -1.5

Total48.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenHOU -2.5

4 → UCF

CloseUCF -1.5

4 pts toward UCF

Total

Open48.5

▼ 1

Close47.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened HOU -2.5 · closed UCF -1.5 · moved 4 toward UCFmodel UCF -5.5

model UCF -5.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 51%, covered 49% (175 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 43% (141 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenHOU -2.5

CloseUCF -1.5

Total48.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UCF as a 1.5-point home favorite against HOU, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: HOU won 30–27 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 57 points went over 47.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.6 against an average line of 2.5; 49.8 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	SC vs UK 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	17–14	W	U52.5
Very close	WVU vs PITT 2023 · Week 3 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	17–6	W	U47.75
Very close	VT vs WAKE 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & rest	-1.5	30–13	W	U48.5
Close	TULN vs UTSA 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	29–16	W	U52.5
Close	ARIZ vs UTAH 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	42–18	W	O45.5
Close	MIA vs LOU 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar total & situation	-1	31–38	L	O46.5
Close	WVU vs OKST 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar team ratings & total	-3	34–48	L	O48.5
Close	MIZ vs UK 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & rest	-1	17–21	L	U40
Close	CIN vs ASU 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar season form & situation	-5	24–14	W	U51
Close	RUTG vs ILL 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar total & rest	-2.25	31–38	L	O47.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HOU LWWWL	6-3	67%	3-1	2-1
UCF LLWWL	4-4	50%	3-2	3-1

Venue/role: HOU away, as underdog; UCF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
HOU UOOUO	6-3	67%	7-2
UCF OUUOU	3-5	38%	4-4

Went over in Q3. Of 496 earlier overs in games with totals 43.5–51.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HOU	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%
UCF	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

HOU 0–1 UCF UCF leads · 1 game since 2023 · UCF has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 25 2023	Houston 13 @ UCF 27	UCF -16	HOU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

HOU−1.8 →+2.3▲ 4.1#56

UCF+6.8 →+4.4▼ 2.4#52

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

HOU

Longer bar = better

UCF

#84

Offense

Even

#74

#39

Defense

Even

#35

+0.1 #68

Turnovers

◀ HOU better

−0.1 #84

68 plays #47

Pace

Even

69 plays #41

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When HOU has the ball

Advantage: UCF defense

	HOU off	UCF def	Edge
Points / game	29.4 #62	18.8 #21	UCF
Yards / play	5.61 #77	4.73 #19	UCF
PPA / play	+0.08 #99	+0.04 #40	UCF
Success rate	41% #99	41% #61	UCF

When UCF has the ball

Advantage: HOU defense

	UCF off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	27.3 #74	21.6 #40	HOU
Yards / play	6.10 #44	5.05 #33	Even
PPA / play	+0.12 #70	+0.04 #41	HOU
Success rate	40% #107	39% #41	HOU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

HOU scoring against the UCF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	6.0 #72	9.2 #59	15.2 #66	7.1 #44	6.8 #69	13.9 #56
UCF allowed	2.6 #14	7.1 #71	9.8 #36	4.9 #52	4.1 #22	9.0 #27

UCF scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UCF scored	7.4 #40	6.0 #108	13.4 #85	6.9 #53	7.0 #62	13.9 #58
HOU allowed	6.3 #91	4.9 #19	11.2 #44	1.8 #6	8.6 #119	10.3 #43

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.