BYU @ Texas Tech: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2025)

Sat, Nov 8, 2025, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Texas Tech · Conference game

Weather at kickoff67°F9 mphgusts 19DryWeather watch ›

BYU

8-0 · Power #19

final

Final

Texas Tech

8-1 · Power #5

▲ winner

Closing spread

TTU -13.5

✓ TTU W

Total

—

Model before kickoff

BYU 20–32 TTU

✓ TTU (82%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTTU -10.5

CloseTTU -13.5

Total—

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTTU -10.5

3 → TTU

CloseTTU -13.5

3 pts toward Texas Tech

Total

Open—

no open

Close—

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TTU -10.5 · closed TTU -13.5 · moved 3 toward TTUmodel TTU -10

model TTU -10

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 12.5–14.5 since 2023: won 86%, covered 52% (125 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (214 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTTU -10.5

CloseTTU -13.5

Total—

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TTU as a 13.5-point home favorite against BYU, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: TTU won 29–7; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 80%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 12.5 against an average line of 13.4; 51.7 points a game (usually 53.9). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3.

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	UTAH vs CIN 2025 · Week 10 · close · similar season form & situation	-11	45–14	W	O57.5
Close	TEX vs CLEM 2024 · Postseason · close · similar spread	-13.5	38–24	W	O49.5
Close	USC vs WSU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & spread	-12.5	30–14	W	U64.5
Close	CLEM vs SYR 2022 · Week 8 · close	-14	27–21	L	U50
Close	FSU vs PITT 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar season form & situation	-10.5	31–34	L	O57
Close	ORE vs ORST 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & season form	-14	31–7	W	U61.25
Close	MISS vs ARK 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & situation	-13	27–20	L	U62
Close	OU vs KSU 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar season form	-13.5	34–41	L	O53
Close	TEX vs ISU 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar situation	-15.5	24–21	L	U48.5
Close	ALA vs MIZ 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & spread	-16	34–0	W	U51.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BYU LLWWW	6-2	75%	3-1	2-0
TTU WWLWW	7-1	88%	4-0	6-1

Venue/role: BYU away, as underdog; TTU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BYU UOOUO	4-4	50%	8-0
TTU UOUUO	4-5	44%	8-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BYU	10-0 100%	8-2 80%	5-5 50%
TTU	8-2 80%	7-2 78%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

BYU 1–0 TTU BYU leads · 1 game since 2023 · BYU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 21 2023	Texas Tech 14 @ BYU 27	TTU -3	BYU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BYU+7.8 →+13.5▲ 5.7#19

TTU+5.6 →+19.6▲ 14.0#8

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

BYU

Longer bar = better

TTU

#28

Offense

Even

#24

#29

Defense

TTU better ▶

+1.3 #4

Turnovers

Even

+0.9 #17

67 plays #63

Pace

TTU faster ▶

74 plays #12

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BYU has the ball

Advantage: TTU defense

	BYU off	TTU def	Edge
Points / game	36.3 #19	13.2 #5	Even
Yards / play	6.47 #28	4.10 #6	TTU
PPA / play	+0.21 #32	−0.26 #1	TTU
Success rate	46% #34	32% #4	TTU

When TTU has the ball

Even matchup

	TTU off	BYU def	Edge
Points / game	43.6 #4	17.0 #16	Even
Yards / play	6.69 #20	4.92 #27	Even
PPA / play	+0.24 #25	0.00 #27	Even
Success rate	45% #46	40% #45	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

BYU scoring against the TTU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BYU scored	7.6 #38	11.8 #21	19.4 #22	5.4 #87	10.4 #7	15.8 #34
TTU allowed	1.4 #2	3.8 #9	5.2 #5	1.6 #5	6.4 #69	8.0 #16

TTU scoring against the BYU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TTU scored	13.2 #2	11.9 #16	25.1 #2	8.0 #30	10.4 #5	18.4 #12
BYU allowed	5.1 #62	4.3 #12	9.4 #25	2.5 #13	4.8 #30	7.3 #10

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.