UCF @ Texas Tech: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2025)

Sat, Nov 15, 2025, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Texas Tech · Conference game

Weather at kickoff88°F11 mphgusts 25DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

UCF

4-5 · Power #66

final

Final

Texas Tech

9-1 · Power #5

▲ winner

Closing spread

TTU -24.5

✓ TTU W

Total

48.5

▲ Over · 57 pts

Model before kickoff

UCF 12–36 TTU

✓ TTU (96%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTTU -23.5

CloseTTU -24.5

Total47.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTTU -23.5

1 → TTU

CloseTTU -24.5

1 pt toward Texas Tech

Total

Open47.5

▲ 1

Close48.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TTU -23.5 · closed TTU -24.5 · moved 1 toward TTUmodel TTU -23.5

model TTU -23.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 23.5–25.5 since 2023: won 96%, covered 53% (74 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 48% (244 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTTU -23.5

CloseTTU -24.5

Total47.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TTU as a 24.5-point home favorite against UCF, the favorite won 10, covered 6, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: TTU won 48–9; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 57 points went over 48.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 92%

Favorite covered

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 54%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 23.1 against an average line of 22.7; 59.9 points a game (usually 54.7). Of the 5 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TEX vs FLA 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & situation	-23	49–17	W	O48.5
Very close	ALA vs SC 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & season form	-21	27–25	L	O50
Very close	MIA vs DUKE 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & rest	-21	53–31	W	O55.5
Close	ND vs UVA 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-21.5	35–14	L	U51
Close	ALA vs AUB 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & rest	-22	49–27	P	O51
Close	OU vs ISU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & total	-20	50–20	W	O48.5
Close	PSU vs MD 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar situation & rest	-26	44–7	W	O50.5
Close	OSU vs NEB 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar total & spread	-25	21–17	L	U48.5
Close	FSU vs UL 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & rest	-25	49–17	W	O52.5
Close	ORE vs ILL 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-22.5	38–9	W	U54

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UCF LWWLL	4-5	44%	1-2	1-3
TTU WLWWW	8-1	89%	5-0	7-1

Venue/role: UCF away, as underdog; TTU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UCF UUOUO	4-5	44%	4-5
TTU OUUO–	4-5	44%	9-1

Went over in Q3. Of 550 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–52.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UCF	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
TTU	9-1 90%	8-1 89%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

UCF 0–1 TTU TTU leads · 1 game since 2023 · TTU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 18 2023	UCF 23 @ Texas Tech 24	TTU -2	UCF W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UCF+6.8 →+3.6▼ 3.2#55

TTU+5.6 →+20.5▲ 14.9#8

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

UCF

Longer bar = better

TTU

#78

Offense

TTU better ▶

#30

#39

Defense

TTU better ▶

+0.1 #62

Turnovers

TTU better ▶

+1.1 #9

68 plays #54

Pace

TTU faster ▶

74 plays #11

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UCF has the ball

Advantage: TTU defense

	UCF off	TTU def	Edge
Points / game	27.2 #70	12.6 #3	TTU
Yards / play	5.96 #54	4.08 #5	TTU
PPA / play	+0.10 #79	−0.27 #1	TTU
Success rate	40% #109	30% #1	TTU

When TTU has the ball

Even matchup

	TTU off	UCF def	Edge
Points / game	42.1 #4	20.0 #27	TTU
Yards / play	6.51 #25	4.82 #21	Even
PPA / play	+0.21 #30	+0.02 #32	Even
Success rate	43% #62	42% #77	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

UCF scoring against the TTU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UCF scored	6.9 #52	7.7 #84	14.6 #72	6.4 #57	6.2 #80	12.7 #70
TTU allowed	1.3 #2	3.4 #6	4.7 #3	1.4 #1	6.5 #66	7.9 #12

TTU scoring against the UCF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TTU scored	12.9 #2	11.0 #23	23.9 #3	7.8 #31	10.4 #6	18.2 #12
UCF allowed	2.3 #10	8.2 #89	10.6 #39	5.1 #59	4.3 #22	9.4 #32

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.