Kansas State @ Oklahoma State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2025)

Sat, Nov 15, 2025, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Oklahoma State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff72°F9 mphgusts 18DryWeather watch ›

Kansas State

4-5 · Power #42

▲ winner

Final

Oklahoma State

1-8 · Power #111

final

Closing spread

KSU -19.5

✓ OKST W

Total

50.5

▼ Under · 20 pts

Model before kickoff

KSU 36–16 OKST

✓ KSU (92%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKSU -19.5

CloseKSU -19.5

Total54.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenKSU -19.5

no move

CloseKSU -19.5

No change since the open

Total

Open54.5

▼ 4

Close50.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened KSU -19.5 · unchangedmodel KSU -21

model KSU -21

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 17.5–21.5 since 2023: won 91%, covered 47% (44 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKSU -19.5

CloseKSU -19.5

Total54.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like KSU as a 19.5-point road favorite at OKST, the favorite won 8, covered 2, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: KSU won 14–6; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 20 points stayed under 50.5, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 89%

Favorite covered

2 of 922%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 49%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 12.9 against an average line of 20; 41.5 points a game (usually 53.3). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	FRES @ CONN 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar total	-23.25	14–19	L	U51
Close	LOU @ STAN 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-21	35–38	L	O57.5
Close	BOIS @ NEV 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-21	24–3	P	U50.5
Close	BOIS @ NEV 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & situation	-21	41–3	W	U47.5
Close	UCLA @ STAN 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar total & spread	-17	42–7	W	U52
Close	BGSU @ AKR 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar total & season form	-16.5	27–20	L	U48.5
Close	JMU @ GAST 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & situation	-19.5	14–7	L	U52.5
Loose	TOL @ BALL 2023 · Week 7 · loose · similar total & situation	-17.5	13–6	L	U48
Loose	BOIS @ WYO 2024 · Week 13 · loose · similar situation & total	-22	17–13	L	U54
Loose	BAY @ OKST 2025 · Week 5 · loose · similar spread & situation	-21	45–27	L	O58.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KSU WWWWL	4-5	44%	2-1	1-4
OKST LLLLW	2-6	25%	1-3	2-5

Venue/role: KSU away, as favorite; OKST home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
KSU OOOOO	6-3	67%	4-5
OKST UOOUO	5-4	56%	1-8

Stayed under: it needed 38 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 54% of games with totals 46.5–54.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KSU	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%
OKST	1-9 10%	2-7 22%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

KSU 1–1 OKST Series tied · 2 games since 2023 · KSU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 28 2024	Oklahoma State 20 @ Kansas State 42	KSU -5.5	KSU W
Oct 6 2023	Kansas State 21 @ Oklahoma State 29	KSU -10	OKST W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

KSU+9.4 →+6.8▼ 2.6#44

OKST−2.7 →−14.6▼ 11.9#122

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

KSU

Longer bar = better

OKST

#77

Offense

◀ KSU better

#132

#58

Defense

◀ KSU better

#133

+0.7 #26

Turnovers

◀ KSU better

−0.1 #85

63 plays #119

Pace

OKST faster ▶

65 plays #88

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When KSU has the ball

Advantage: KSU offense

	KSU off	OKST def	Edge
Points / game	29.8 #59	38.8 #136	KSU
Yards / play	5.78 #62	6.53 #133	KSU
PPA / play	+0.08 #92	+0.30 #136	KSU
Success rate	41% #95	47% #125	KSU

When OKST has the ball

Advantage: KSU defense

	OKST off	KSU def	Edge
Points / game	15.2 #134	27.7 #91	KSU
Yards / play	4.56 #134	5.19 #49	KSU
PPA / play	−0.05 #130	+0.06 #51	KSU
Success rate	35% #131	39% #40	KSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

KSU scoring against the OKST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KSU scored	5.7 #74	7.2 #90	12.9 #86	11.0 #3	5.9 #84	16.9 #22
OKST allowed	11.0 #135	11.9 #134	22.9 #136	10.2 #134	5.7 #49	15.9 #128

OKST scoring against the KSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OKST scored	4.9 #94	3.6 #134	8.4 #128	2.7 #131	4.1 #125	6.8 #134
KSU allowed	3.4 #33	8.7 #95	12.1 #64	6.0 #86	9.6 #130	15.6 #125

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.