Kansas State @ Utah: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2025)

Sat, Nov 22, 2025, 4:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Utah · Conference game

Weather at kickoff46°F5 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Kansas State

5-5 · Power #42

final

Final

Utah

8-2 · Power #8

▲ winner

Closing spread

UTAH -18.5

✓ KSU W

Total

52.5

▲ Over · 98 pts

Model before kickoff

KSU 17–36 UTAH

✓ UTAH (91%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUTAH -17.5

CloseUTAH -18.5

Total52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUTAH -17.5

1 → UTAH

CloseUTAH -18.5

1 pt toward Utah

Total

Open52.5

no move

Close52.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UTAH -17.5 · closed UTAH -18.5 · moved 1 toward UTAHmodel UTAH -21

model UTAH -21

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 17.5–19.5 since 2023: won 94%, covered 52% (104 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 49% (259 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUTAH -17.5

CloseUTAH -18.5

Total52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UTAH as an 18.5-point home favorite against KSU, the favorite won 9, covered 4, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: UTAH won 51–47; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 98 points went over 52.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 89%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 48%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 20.6 against an average line of 19.2; 61.2 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 7 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	PSU vs MSU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-19	35–16	P	U54.5
Very close	ALA vs SC 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & total	-21	27–25	L	O50
Very close	MIA vs DUKE 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & situation	-21	53–31	W	O55.5
Very close	KSU vs BAY 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-20.5	59–25	W	O55.5
Very close	TEX vs TTU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & total	-16	57–7	W	O53.5
Very close	LOU vs CAL 2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-18.5	26–29	L	O49
Very close	TENN vs UK 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & spread	-17.5	28–18	L	O45.5
Very close	CLEM vs UVA 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-20	48–31	L	O57.5
Very close	MIA vs NCSU 2025 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & total	-16.5	41–7	W	U54.5
Very close	ND vs UVA 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & total	-21.5	35–14	L	U51

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KSU WWWLL	4-6	40%	2-2	3-1
UTAH WLWWW	8-2	80%	4-1	8-2

Venue/role: KSU away, as underdog; UTAH home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
KSU OOOOU	6-4	60%	5-5
UTAH OUOOO	7-3	70%	8-2

Went over in Q3. Of 610 earlier overs in games with totals 48.5–56.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KSU	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
UTAH	8-2 80%	8-2 80%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

KSU+9.4 →+5.6▼ 3.8#48

UTAH+4.1 →+20.2▲ 16.1#9

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

KSU

Longer bar = better

UTAH

#83

Offense

UTAH better ▶

#13

#53

Defense

UTAH better ▶

#15

+1.0 #8

Turnovers

◀ KSU better

+0.3 #40

62 plays #122

Pace

UTAH faster ▶

73 plays #11

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When KSU has the ball

Advantage: UTAH defense

	KSU off	UTAH def	Edge
Points / game	28.2 #65	15.6 #10	UTAH
Yards / play	5.70 #66	4.93 #26	UTAH
PPA / play	+0.07 #95	−0.06 #12	UTAH
Success rate	40% #104	36% #13	UTAH

When UTAH has the ball

Advantage: UTAH offense

	UTAH off	KSU def	Edge
Points / game	41.1 #6	25.5 #78	UTAH
Yards / play	6.53 #24	5.23 #47	UTAH
PPA / play	+0.31 #7	+0.04 #43	UTAH
Success rate	49% #13	39% #42	UTAH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

KSU scoring against the UTAH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KSU scored	5.1 #88	7.2 #91	12.3 #94	9.9 #10	6.0 #82	15.9 #30
UTAH allowed	2.0 #4	4.0 #8	6.0 #6	2.7 #11	6.9 #83	9.6 #34

UTAH scoring against the KSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTAH scored	9.6 #11	11.9 #13	21.5 #10	9.0 #15	10.6 #4	19.6 #5
KSU allowed	3.4 #34	8.1 #88	11.5 #52	5.4 #61	8.6 #123	14.0 #103

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.