Colorado @ Kansas State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2025)

Sat, Nov 29, 2025, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Kansas State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff32°F21 mphgusts 39Wet0.0 mmWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Colorado

3-8 · Power #75

final

Final

Kansas State

5-6 · Power #42

▲ winner

Closing spread

KSU -16.5

✓ COLO W

Total

49.5

▼ Under · 38 pts

Model before kickoff

COLO 15–31 KSU

✓ KSU (87%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenKSU -17.5

CloseKSU -16.5

Total50.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenKSU -17.5

1 → COLO

CloseKSU -16.5

1 pt toward Colorado

Total

Open50.5

▼ 1

Close49.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened KSU -17.5 · closed KSU -16.5 · moved 1 toward COLOmodel KSU -13.5

model KSU -13.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 15.5–17.5 since 2023: won 91%, covered 48% (126 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (306 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenKSU -17.5

CloseKSU -16.5

Total50.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like KSU as a 16.5-point home favorite against COLO, the favorite won 8, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: KSU won 24–14; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 38 points stayed under 49.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 86%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 11.8 against an average line of 15.8; 50.8 points a game (usually 53). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MD vs RUTG 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & season form	-14.5	37–0	W	U48.5
Very close	OKST vs BYU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-16.5	40–34	L	O55
Very close	GT vs SYR 2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-17.5	41–16	W	O52.5
Very close	PUR vs NU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & rest	-17.5	17–9	L	U44.5
Very close	CAL vs STAN 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & season form	-15	24–21	L	U53.5
Very close	HOU vs WVU 2025 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & total	-13	35–45	L	O48.5
Very close	APP vs ODU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & total	-16	27–14	L	U50.5
Close	UCF vs NAVY 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-15.25	14–17	L	U53
Close	MIA vs UVA 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & total	-18.5	29–26	L	O48
Close	WASH vs PUR 2025 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-14.5	49–13	W	O51.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
COLO WLLLL	5-6	45%	1-3	3-6
KSU WWLLW	5-6	45%	2-3	1-5

Venue/role: COLO away, as underdog; KSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
COLO UOOUO	5-6	45%	3-8
KSU OOOUO	7-4	64%	5-6

Stayed under: it needed 29 in the 4th quarter and got 17. 54% of games with totals 45.5–53.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
COLO	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
KSU	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

COLO 0–1 KSU KSU leads · 1 game since 2023 · KSU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 12 2024	Kansas State 31 @ Colorado 28	KSU -3.5	COLO W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

COLO+9.6 →−2.8▼ 12.4#77

KSU+9.4 →+6.5▼ 2.9#44

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

COLO

Longer bar = better

KSU

#114

Offense

KSU better ▶

#63

#107

Defense

KSU better ▶

#66

−0.1 #80

Turnovers

KSU better ▶

+0.9 #13

65 plays #90

Pace

◀ COLO faster

62 plays #120

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When COLO has the ball

Advantage: KSU defense

	COLO off	KSU def	Edge
Points / game	21.5 #112	27.8 #92	Even
Yards / play	5.05 #115	5.37 #56	KSU
PPA / play	+0.06 #99	+0.07 #64	KSU
Success rate	35% #131	40% #51	KSU

When KSU has the ball

Advantage: KSU offense

	KSU off	COLO def	Edge
Points / game	29.9 #48	31.1 #117	KSU
Yards / play	6.00 #45	6.20 #118	KSU
PPA / play	+0.12 #68	+0.15 #97	KSU
Success rate	41% #90	43% #94	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

COLO scoring against the KSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
COLO scored	3.8 #118	7.1 #89	10.9 #107	5.6 #77	5.0 #112	10.6 #102
KSU allowed	3.7 #35	8.6 #95	12.4 #64	6.2 #90	9.3 #125	15.5 #124

KSU scoring against the COLO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KSU scored	5.3 #86	8.7 #67	14.0 #75	9.6 #8	6.3 #78	15.9 #25
COLO allowed	5.4 #71	11.5 #132	16.9 #117	6.3 #95	7.9 #105	14.2 #104

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.