Arizona @ Arizona State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2025)

Fri, Nov 28, 2025, 9:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Arizona State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff63°F2 mphDryWeather watch ›

Arizona

8-3 · Power #26

▲ winner

Final

Arizona State

8-3 · Power #41

final

Closing spread

ARIZ -2.5

✓ ARIZ W

Total

48.5

▼ Under · 30 pts

Model before kickoff

ARIZ 25–24 ASU

✓ ARIZ (55%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenARIZ -2.5

CloseARIZ -2.5

Total47.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenARIZ -2.5

no move

CloseARIZ -2.5

No change since the open

Total

Open47.5

▲ 1

Close48.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ARIZ -2.5 · unchangedmodel ASU -2

model ASU -2

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 55%, covered 47% (235 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenARIZ -2.5

CloseARIZ -2.5

Total47.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ARIZ as a 2.5-point road favorite at ASU, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: ARIZ won 23–7; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 30 points stayed under 48.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 5 against an average line of 2.7; 52.4 points a game (usually 52.8). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TA&M @ AUB 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	41–43	L	O47
Very close	MINN @ ILL 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	25–17	W	U47
Very close	ISU @ COLO 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar season form & rest	-3	17–24	L	U52.5
Very close	MD @ RUTG 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & spread	-2	42–24	W	O45.5
Very close	WAKE @ NCST 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3	21–30	L	U54
Very close	ISU @ OKST 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & situation	-2.75	14–20	L	U47.5
Very close	LOU @ UK 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar total & season form	-4	41–14	W	O49.5
Very close	KSU @ ISU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & season form	-1	10–9	P	U45
Very close	KSU @ WVU 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	45–18	W	O56
Very close	VT @ SYR 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & season form	-3.5	31–38	L	O53.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ARIZ LWLWW	7-4	64%	2-2	5-2
ASU WLWLW	6-5	55%	3-3	3-1

Venue/role: ARIZ away, as favorite; ASU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARIZ OOUUU	4-7	36%	8-3
ASU UUUOO	4-7	36%	8-3

Stayed under: it needed 29 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 53% of games with totals 44.5–52.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARIZ	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
ASU	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

ARIZ 43–45 ASU (1 tied) ASU leads · 89 games since 1931 · ARIZ has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 30 2024	Arizona State 49 @ Arizona 7	ASU -7.5	ASU W
Nov 25 2023	Arizona 59 @ Arizona State 23	ARIZ -13.5	ARIZ W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ARIZ−2.1 →+9.4▲ 11.5#28

ASU+11.1 →+9.0▼ 2.1#30

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

ARIZ

Longer bar = better

ASU

#43

Offense

◀ ARIZ better

#82

#24

Defense

◀ ARIZ better

#44

+1.1 #7

Turnovers

◀ ARIZ better

0.0 #70

67 plays #63

Pace

ASU faster ▶

73 plays #12

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ARIZ has the ball

Even matchup

	ARIZ off	ASU def	Edge
Points / game	33.5 #27	23.0 #55	ARIZ
Yards / play	6.05 #40	5.12 #38	Even
PPA / play	+0.20 #33	+0.04 #43	Even
Success rate	42% #71	39% #41	ASU

When ASU has the ball

Advantage: ARIZ defense

	ASU off	ARIZ def	Edge
Points / game	26.3 #79	20.0 #25	ARIZ
Yards / play	5.73 #69	4.59 #12	ARIZ
PPA / play	+0.09 #81	+0.01 #24	ARIZ
Success rate	41% #97	39% #34	ARIZ

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

ARIZ scoring against the ASU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARIZ scored	10.1 #8	8.6 #71	18.7 #21	7.8 #28	6.6 #71	14.5 #41
ASU allowed	4.8 #56	6.5 #45	11.3 #48	5.5 #68	6.2 #59	11.7 #61

ASU scoring against the ARIZ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ASU scored	2.9 #128	8.7 #67	11.6 #100	6.4 #53	8.3 #35	14.6 #40
ARIZ allowed	6.6 #96	4.9 #16	11.5 #53	4.4 #37	3.3 #8	7.6 #11

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.