Bowling Green @ Massachusetts: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2025)

Tue, Nov 25, 2025, 4:30 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Massachusetts · Conference game

Weather at kickoff43°F7 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Bowling Green

3-8 · Power #120

▲ winner

Final

Massachusetts

0-11 · Power #136

final

Closing spread

BGSU -14

✓ BGSU W

Total

44.5

▲ Over · 59 pts

Model before kickoff

BGSU 30–16 MASS

✓ BGSU (84%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenBGSU -14.5

CloseBGSU -14

Total44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBGSU -14.5

0.5 → MASS

CloseBGSU -14

0.5 pts toward Massachusetts

Total

Open44.5

no move

Close44.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BGSU -14.5 · closed BGSU -14 · moved 0.5 toward MASSmodel BGSU -13

model BGSU -13

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 13–15 since 2023: won 76%, covered 48% (67 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenBGSU -14.5

CloseBGSU -14

Total44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BGSU as a 14-point road favorite at MASS, the favorite won 9, covered 7, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: BGSU won 45–14; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 59 points went over 44.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 82%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 19.7 against an average line of 12.3; 51.3 points a game (usually 53.4). Of the 7 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WMU @ MASS 2025 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & total	-12.5	21–3	W	U46.5
Very close	NIU @ MASS 2025 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & rest	-9.5	45–3	W	O43.5
Very close	AKR @ KENT 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-10.5	38–17	W	O49
Close	BUFF @ MASS 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & spread	-16.5	28–21	L	O47.5
Close	WYO @ HAW 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-11.5	27–20	L	U50.75
Close	BGSU @ KENT 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-10.5	49–19	W	O41.5
Close	LT @ NMSU 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & rest	-12.5	30–33	L	O48.5
Close	EMU @ KENT 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-14	52–33	W	O46
Close	WYO @ NEV 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & situation	-11	42–6	W	O41.75
Close	M-OH @ KENT 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-14.5	23–3	W	U49.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BGSU LLLLL	4-7	36%	2-3	0-5
MASS WLLLW	3-8	27%	1-4	3-7

Venue/role: BGSU away, as favorite; MASS home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BGSU UUUUU	4-7	36%	3-8
MASS OOOOO	8-3	73%	0-11

Went over in Q3. Of 403 earlier overs in games with totals 40.5–48.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BGSU	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
MASS	0-10 0%	3-7 30%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

BGSU 5–0 MASS BGSU leads · 5 games since 2012 · BGSU has won the last 5 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BGSU−4.2 →−14.5▼ 10.3#124

MASS−14.6 →−28.7▼ 14.1#136

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

BGSU

Longer bar = better

MASS

#131

Offense

Even

#137

#71

Defense

◀ BGSU better

#129

+0.1 #65

Turnovers

◀ BGSU better

−0.5 #112

64 plays #107

Pace

Even

64 plays #106

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BGSU has the ball

Even matchup

	BGSU off	MASS def	Edge
Points / game	18.3 #125	38.0 #135	Even
Yards / play	4.67 #131	6.26 #121	Even
PPA / play	−0.09 #136	+0.25 #129	Even
Success rate	35% #132	48% #132	Even

When MASS has the ball

Advantage: BGSU defense

	MASS off	BGSU def	Edge
Points / game	10.8 #137	25.2 #73	BGSU
Yards / play	3.81 #137	5.73 #81	BGSU
PPA / play	−0.11 #137	+0.10 #74	BGSU
Success rate	33% #135	40% #54	BGSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

BGSU scoring against the MASS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BGSU scored	3.9 #118	4.5 #120	8.5 #125	3.4 #121	6.5 #75	9.8 #112
MASS allowed	10.0 #132	10.9 #128	20.9 #135	11.0 #136	6.1 #59	17.1 #130

MASS scoring against the BGSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MASS scored	4.5 #104	4.0 #129	8.5 #125	1.8 #136	0.5 #136	2.4 #136
BGSU allowed	5.6 #75	7.2 #65	12.8 #73	8.0 #124	4.4 #23	12.4 #76

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.