Iowa @ Nebraska: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2025)

Fri, Nov 28, 2025, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Nebraska · Conference game

Weather at kickoff28°F8 mphgusts 19DryCold Over 50% of 115 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Iowa

7-4 · Power #20

▲ winner

Final

Nebraska

7-4 · Power #45

final

Closing spread

IOWA -5.5

✓ IOWA W

Total

38.5

▲ Over · 56 pts

Model before kickoff

IOWA 23–18 NEB

✓ IOWA (64%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenIOWA -5.5

CloseIOWA -5.5

Total38.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenIOWA -5.5

no move

CloseIOWA -5.5

No change since the open

Total

Open38.5

no move

Close38.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened IOWA -5.5 · unchangedmodel IOWA -2.5

model IOWA -2.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 60%, covered 48% (154 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenIOWA -5.5

CloseIOWA -5.5

Total38.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like IOWA as a 5.5-point road favorite at NEB, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: IOWA won 40–16; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 56 points went over 38.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 63%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.9 against an average line of 4.8; 45.7 points a game (usually 53). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ISU @ UTAH 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & spread	-6.5	31–28	L	O42.5
Very close	OU @ SC 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & rest	-4.5	26–7	W	U43
Very close	PITT @ MIA 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-4.25	42–16	W	O44
Very close	IOWA @ UCLA 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	17–20	L	U45
Very close	IOWA @ WIS 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & spread	-5	37–0	W	U37.5
Very close	PITT @ UVA 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-5.5	37–7	W	O41.5
Very close	TA&M @ AUB 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	41–43	L	O47
Very close	MIA @ NCSU 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & rest	-6	6–20	L	U44
Close	FLA @ UK 2025 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & rest	-4.5	7–38	L	O44.5
Close	ISU @ OKST 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & rest	-2.75	14–20	L	U47.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
IOWA LWWWL	8-3	73%	4-0	4-3
NEB LLWWL	4-7	36%	3-3	2-2

Venue/role: IOWA away, as favorite; NEB home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
IOWA OOUUU	4-7	36%	7-4
NEB UOUOO	8-3	73%	7-4

Went over in Q2. Of 109 earlier overs in games with totals 34.5–42.5, 36% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
IOWA	6-4 60%	8-2 80%	4-6 40%
NEB	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

IOWA 2–0 NEB IOWA leads · 2 games since 2023 · IOWA has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 29 2024	Nebraska 10 @ Iowa 13	IOWA -3.5	NEB W
Nov 24 2023	Iowa 13 @ Nebraska 10	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

IOWA+7.8 →+12.3▲ 4.5#22

NEB+8.3 →+7.3▼ 1.0#42

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

IOWA

Longer bar = better

NEB

#76

Offense

NEB better ▶

#49

#18

Defense

◀ IOWA better

#56

+0.2 #56

Turnovers

Even

+0.3 #45

61 plays #129

Pace

NEB faster ▶

64 plays #104

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When IOWA has the ball

Even matchup

	IOWA off	NEB def	Edge
Points / game	27.9 #69	21.5 #39	NEB
Yards / play	5.09 #107	5.19 #42	NEB
PPA / play	+0.09 #79	+0.11 #75	Even
Success rate	44% #49	42% #68	Even

When NEB has the ball

Advantage: IOWA defense

	NEB off	IOWA def	Edge
Points / game	30.5 #47	15.1 #9	IOWA
Yards / play	5.93 #53	4.48 #9	IOWA
PPA / play	+0.10 #73	−0.04 #15	IOWA
Success rate	48% #21	39% #38	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

IOWA scoring against the NEB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IOWA scored	8.3 #19	8.7 #66	17.0 #39	3.3 #124	7.6 #46	10.9 #97
NEB allowed	2.1 #3	6.4 #42	8.5 #14	8.0 #125	5.0 #30	13.0 #91

NEB scoring against the IOWA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NEB scored	6.5 #60	10.8 #24	17.3 #35	6.4 #53	6.8 #63	13.2 #59
IOWA allowed	3.3 #29	5.5 #25	8.8 #17	3.3 #21	3.0 #4	6.3 #6

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.