Oregon @ Washington: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2025)

Sat, Nov 29, 2025, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Washington · Conference game

Weather at kickoff47°F3 mphgusts 8DryWeather watch ›

Oregon

10-1 · Power #4

▲ winner

Final

Washington

8-3 · Power #15

final

Closing spread

ORE -6.5

✓ ORE W

Total

51.5

▼ Under · 40 pts

Model before kickoff

ORE 31–25 WASH

✓ ORE (69%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenORE -6.5

CloseORE -6.5

Total51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenORE -6.5

no move

CloseORE -6.5

No change since the open

Total

Open51.5

no move

Close51.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ORE -6.5 · unchangedmodel ORE -8.5

model ORE -8.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 54% (175 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenORE -6.5

CloseORE -6.5

Total51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ORE as a 6.5-point road favorite at WASH, the favorite won 8, covered 8, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: ORE won 26–14; the favorite covered, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 40 points stayed under 51.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 68%

Favorite covered

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 12.4 against an average line of 6.5; 54.8 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 3 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TEX @ TA&M 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	17–7	W	U50
Very close	MISS @ ARK 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & season form	-8	63–31	W	O54
Very close	ND @ USC 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7	49–35	W	O52.5
Very close	CLEM @ FSU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & rest	-4.5	34–28	W	O51
Very close	MIA @ SMU 2025 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & rest	-8.5	20–26	L	U50.5
Very close	ND @ LOU 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar season form & rest	-6	20–33	L	U54
Very close	PSU @ MD 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & rest	-8.5	51–15	W	O50.5
Very close	UGA @ TENN 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & situation	-9	38–10	W	U59
Very close	CLEM @ VT 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	24–14	W	U54.5
Very close	OSU @ PSU 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3	20–13	W	U47.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ORE WLLWW	6-5	55%	2-2	5-5
WASH LWLWW	6-5	55%	4-2	0-2

Venue/role: ORE away, as favorite; WASH home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ORE OUUOO	6-5	55%	10-1
WASH UOUOO	6-5	55%	8-3

Stayed under: it needed 26 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 54% of games with totals 47.5–55.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ORE	9-1 90%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
WASH	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

ORE 1–2 WASH WASH leads · 3 games since 2023 · ORE has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 30 2024	Washington 21 @ Oregon 49	ORE -17.5	ORE W
Dec 1 2023	Oregon 31 @ Washington 34	ORE -10	WASH W
Oct 14 2023	Oregon 33 @ Washington 36	WASH -3.5	ORE W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ORE+21.3 →+24.9▲ 3.6#4

WASH+8.0 →+14.7▲ 6.7#18

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

ORE

Longer bar = better

WASH

Offense

Even

#16

#11

Defense

◀ ORE better

#26

+0.5 #26

Turnovers

◀ ORE better

+0.3 #47

65 plays #89

Pace

Even

65 plays #97

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ORE has the ball

Even matchup

	ORE off	WASH def	Edge
Points / game	39.3 #8	18.8 #19	Even
Yards / play	7.24 #4	4.75 #16	Even
PPA / play	+0.36 #3	+0.01 #25	ORE
Success rate	52% #5	39% #42	ORE

When WASH has the ball

Even matchup

	WASH off	ORE def	Edge
Points / game	35.5 #18	14.9 #8	Even
Yards / play	6.60 #20	4.13 #5	Even
PPA / play	+0.26 #18	−0.04 #15	Even
Success rate	51% #7	36% #14	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

ORE scoring against the WASH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ORE scored	9.3 #9	13.2 #4	22.5 #6	10.4 #4	5.3 #108	15.6 #29
WASH allowed	3.6 #37	4.9 #14	8.5 #14	6.2 #90	4.1 #17	10.3 #43

WASH scoring against the ORE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WASH scored	5.4 #85	10.9 #26	16.3 #46	8.8 #14	10.5 #6	19.3 #6
ORE allowed	2.5 #7	2.9 #3	5.4 #4	2.2 #7	6.7 #72	8.9 #25

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.