Penn State @ Rutgers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2025)

Sat, Nov 29, 2025, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Rutgers · Conference game

Weather at kickoff40°F3 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

Penn State

5-6 · Power #17

▲ winner

Final

Rutgers

5-6 · Power #62

final

Closing spread

PSU -14

✓ RUTG W

Total

55.5

▲ Over · 76 pts

Model before kickoff

PSU 36–23 RUTG

✓ PSU (83%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenPSU -14

ClosePSU -14

Total55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenPSU -14

no move

ClosePSU -14

No change since the open

Total

Open55.5

no move

Close55.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened PSU -14 · unchangedmodel PSU -11

model PSU -11

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 13–15 since 2023: won 77%, covered 48% (69 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenPSU -14

ClosePSU -14

Total55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PSU as a 14-point road favorite at RUTG, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: PSU won 40–36; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 76 points went over 55.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 82%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 15.2 against an average line of 12.3; 56 points a game (usually 53.4). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CLEM @ BC 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & total	-14	41–10	W	U54.5
Very close	FLA @ VAN 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-14	24–31	L	U58
Very close	LOU @ VT 2025 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & season form	-10.5	28–16	W	U52.5
Very close	WASH @ ASU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & total	-13.5	38–45	L	O56
Very close	MIZ @ VAN 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-13.5	38–21	W	O54.5
Very close	WASH @ UCLA 2025 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & situation	-10.5	48–14	W	O51.5
Very close	TCU @ WVU 2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & total	-16.5	23–17	L	U55.5
Very close	PUR @ IU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-10	30–16	W	U53
Very close	SMU @ BC 2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-10.5	45–13	W	O54.5
Close	UGA @ MSST 2025 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-9.5	41–21	W	O56.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PSU WLWWW	4-7	36%	2-2	2-6
RUTG LWLWL	5-6	45%	3-3	2-5

Venue/role: PSU away, as favorite; RUTG home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PSU OOOUO	8-3	73%	5-6
RUTG OUUUU	6-5	55%	5-6

Went over in Q3. Of 543 earlier overs in games with totals 51.5–59.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PSU	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%
RUTG	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

PSU 1–0 RUTG PSU leads · 1 game since 2023 · PSU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 18 2023	Rutgers 6 @ Penn State 27	PSU -19.5	PSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PSU+20.4 →+13.8▼ 6.6#21

RUTG+3.4 →+1.5▼ 1.9#62

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

PSU

Longer bar = better

RUTG

#47

Offense

Even

#54

#40

Defense

◀ PSU better

#128

+0.2 #57

Turnovers

Even

+0.1 #68

62 plays #122

Pace

RUTG faster ▶

71 plays #24

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PSU has the ball

Advantage: PSU offense

	PSU off	RUTG def	Edge
Points / game	31.0 #43	31.1 #118	PSU
Yards / play	5.56 #78	7.45 #137	PSU
PPA / play	+0.17 #41	+0.25 #131	PSU
Success rate	47% #26	47% #127	PSU

When RUTG has the ball

Even matchup

	RUTG off	PSU def	Edge
Points / game	28.0 #67	20.1 #29	PSU
Yards / play	5.57 #76	5.01 #31	PSU
PPA / play	+0.17 #42	+0.04 #44	Even
Success rate	46% #30	41% #54	RUTG

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

PSU scoring against the RUTG defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PSU scored	4.7 #101	9.3 #53	14.0 #76	5.7 #79	10.6 #4	16.4 #20
RUTG allowed	6.6 #97	9.6 #112	16.3 #108	9.8 #134	5.0 #32	14.8 #113

RUTG scoring against the PSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
RUTG scored	5.5 #79	10.5 #33	16.0 #50	4.3 #105	7.7 #44	12.0 #83
PSU allowed	3.4 #31	6.0 #31	9.4 #18	4.0 #30	5.5 #43	9.5 #31

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.