Wake Forest @ Duke: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2025)

Sat, Nov 29, 2025, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Duke · Conference game

Weather at kickoff41°F2 mphgusts 8DryWeather watch ›

Wake Forest

8-3 · Power #53

final

Final

Duke

6-5 · Power #47

▲ winner

Closing spread

DUKE -2.5

✓ DUKE W

Total

53.5

▲ Over · 81 pts

Model before kickoff

WAKE 25–27 DUKE

✓ DUKE (57%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenWAKE -1.5

CloseDUKE -2.5

Total54.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenWAKE -1.5

4 → DUKE

CloseDUKE -2.5

4 pts toward Duke

Total

Open54.5

▼ 1

Close53.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened WAKE -1.5 · closed DUKE -2.5 · moved 4 toward DUKEmodel DUKE -3

model DUKE -3

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 52% (316 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 45% (154 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenWAKE -1.5

CloseDUKE -2.5

Total54.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DUKE as a 2.5-point home favorite against WAKE, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: DUKE won 49–32; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 81 points went over 53.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.1 against an average line of 2.8; 48.1 points a game (usually 52.8). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	SC vs UK 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	17–14	W	U52.5
Very close	UCF vs BYU 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & spread	-2.5	24–37	L	O53.5
Very close	UCF vs HOU 2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & spread	-1.5	27–30	L	O47.5
Very close	CIN vs ASU 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & season form	-5	24–14	W	U51
Close	WVU vs PITT 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	17–6	W	U47.75
Close	UCLA vs MD 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & total	-4	20–17	L	U52.5
Close	COLO vs BAY 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-2.5	38–31	W	O52.5
Close	ECU vs NAVY 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar situation & season form	-2.75	20–34	L	P54
Close	TULN vs UTSA 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	29–16	W	U52.5
Close	USU vs SJSU 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & rest	-1	35–31	W	O51

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WAKE WLWWW	8-3	73%	3-1	4-2
DUKE LWLLW	5-5	50%	1-3	4-4

Venue/role: WAKE away, as underdog; DUKE home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WAKE UUUOO	6-5	55%	8-3
DUKE UOOUO	8-3	73%	6-5

Went over in Q3. Of 582 earlier overs in games with totals 49.5–57.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WAKE	7-3 70%	8-2 80%	6-4 60%
DUKE	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

WAKE 40–60 DUKE (2 tied) DUKE leads · 102 games since 1921 · DUKE has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 30 2024	Duke 23 @ Wake Forest 17	DUKE -3.5	DUKE W
Nov 2 2023	Wake Forest 21 @ Duke 24	DUKE -6.5	WAKE W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WAKE−4.6 →+2.8▲ 7.4#58

DUKE+1.9 →+3.4▲ 1.5#53

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

WAKE

Longer bar = better

DUKE

#90

Offense

DUKE better ▶

#29

#11

Defense

◀ WAKE better

#110

−0.1 #78

Turnovers

DUKE better ▶

+0.3 #49

65 plays #87

Pace

DUKE faster ▶

66 plays #72

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WAKE has the ball

Even matchup

	WAKE off	DUKE def	Edge
Points / game	26.4 #78	29.2 #102	WAKE
Yards / play	5.86 #60	6.21 #119	WAKE
PPA / play	+0.05 #103	+0.19 #116	Even
Success rate	37% #120	44% #104	Even

When DUKE has the ball

Even matchup

	DUKE off	WAKE def	Edge
Points / game	33.3 #29	19.0 #20	Even
Yards / play	6.40 #25	4.46 #8	Even
PPA / play	+0.21 #30	−0.09 #6	WAKE
Success rate	46% #32	34% #8	WAKE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

WAKE scoring against the DUKE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WAKE scored	7.7 #29	9.3 #53	17.0 #38	5.5 #81	3.3 #132	8.8 #124
DUKE allowed	7.5 #114	8.3 #90	15.8 #104	5.9 #82	7.5 #94	13.4 #95

DUKE scoring against the WAKE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DUKE scored	5.9 #72	10.2 #39	16.1 #47	7.2 #38	10.0 #11	17.2 #17
WAKE allowed	3.0 #19	4.5 #10	7.5 #10	5.4 #65	5.5 #43	10.9 #49

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.