Florida State @ Florida: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2025)

Sat, Nov 29, 2025, 4:30 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Florida

Weather at kickoff66°F10 mphgusts 19DryWeather watch ›

Florida State

5-6 · Power #23

final

Final

Florida

3-8 · Power #37

▲ winner

Closing spread

FSU -1.5

✓ FLA W

Total

49.5

▲ Over · 61 pts

Model before kickoff

FSU 25–24 FLA

✗ FSU (55%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenFLA -1.5

CloseFSU -1.5

Total49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenFLA -1.5

3 → FSU

CloseFSU -1.5

3 pts toward Florida State

Total

Open49.5

no move

Close49.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened FLA -1.5 · closed FSU -1.5 · moved 3 toward FSUmodel FSU -2.5

model FSU -2.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 53%, covered 49% (167 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (249 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenFLA -1.5

CloseFSU -1.5

Total49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like FSU as a 1.5-point road favorite at FLA, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: FLA won 40–21 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 61 points went over 49.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 2.5 against an average line of 3; 55.9 points a game (usually 53). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LOU @ UK 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar situation & rest	-4	41–14	W	O49.5
Close	TCU @ KSU 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & season form	-3	28–41	L	O54.5
Close	TA&M @ AUB 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & total	-2.5	41–43	L	O47
Close	MIZ @ AUB 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & rest	-1.5	23–17	W	U43.5
Close	ARIZ @ HOU 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-2	28–31	L	O47.5
Close	MISS @ TA&M 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & season form	-3	31–28	P	O55.25
Close	TTU @ BAY 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	39–14	W	U59.5
Close	MIA @ NCSU 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & season form	-6	6–20	L	U44
Close	UK @ FLA 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	20–48	L	O42.5
Close	UNC @ FSU 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & total	-2.5	35–11	W	U50.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FSU LWLWL	5-6	45%	0-4	4-4
FLA LWLWL	4-7	36%	2-3	3-4

Venue/role: FSU away, as favorite; FLA home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
FSU UUUUU	5-6	45%	5-6
FLA UUOOU	4-7	36%	3-8

Went over in Q4. Of 608 earlier overs in games with totals 45.5–53.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FSU	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
FLA	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

FSU 29–39 FLA (2 tied) FLA leads · 70 games since 1904 · FLA has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 30 2024	Florida 31 @ Florida State 11	FLA -17.5	FLA W
Nov 25 2023	Florida State 24 @ Florida 15	FSU -6.5	FSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

FSU0.0 →+12.2▲ 12.2#23

FLA+13.1 →+7.6▼ 5.5#41

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

FSU

Longer bar = better

FLA

#26

Offense

◀ FSU better

#110

#45

Defense

◀ FSU better

#80

−0.4 #108

Turnovers

FLA better ▶

−0.2 #89

71 plays #25

Pace

◀ FSU faster

63 plays #116

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When FSU has the ball

Advantage: FSU offense

	FSU off	FLA def	Edge
Points / game	34.1 #23	24.3 #66	FSU
Yards / play	6.74 #16	5.61 #75	FSU
PPA / play	+0.22 #28	+0.13 #87	FSU
Success rate	46% #35	43% #91	FSU

When FLA has the ball

Advantage: FSU defense

	FLA off	FSU def	Edge
Points / game	19.9 #121	20.4 #31	FSU
Yards / play	5.30 #98	4.88 #23	FSU
PPA / play	+0.01 #120	+0.07 #63	FSU
Success rate	40% #99	41% #62	FSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

FSU scoring against the FLA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FSU scored	6.6 #49	11.5 #17	18.2 #24	7.3 #38	8.4 #31	15.6 #28
FLA allowed	5.6 #80	8.2 #86	13.8 #85	3.6 #26	6.8 #75	10.5 #44

FLA scoring against the FSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FLA scored	6.5 #55	6.6 #100	13.1 #84	3.6 #118	3.2 #133	6.8 #134
FSU allowed	4.8 #55	5.0 #16	9.8 #25	4.4 #39	5.2 #35	9.5 #33

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.