Vanderbilt @ Tennessee: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2025)

Sat, Nov 29, 2025, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Tennessee · Conference game

Weather at kickoff45°F2 mphgusts 7DryWeather watch ›

Vanderbilt

9-2 · Power #13

▲ winner

Final

Tennessee

8-3 · Power #22

final

Closing spread

TENN -2.5

✓ VAN W

Total

66.5

▲ Over · 69 pts

Model before kickoff

VAN 32–34 TENN

✗ TENN (58%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenTENN -2.5

CloseTENN -2.5

Total65.5 → 66.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTENN -2.5

no move

CloseTENN -2.5

No change since the open

Total

Open65.5

▲ 1

Close66.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TENN -2.5 · unchangedmodel TENN -4

model TENN -4

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 52% (316 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenTENN -2.5

CloseTENN -2.5

Total65.5 → 66.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TENN as a 2.5-point home favorite against VAN, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: VAN won 45–24 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 69 points went over 66.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.9 against an average line of 3.6; 55.9 points a game (usually 52.8). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ORE vs UTAH 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & rest	-1	20–17	W	U61.5
Very close	MISS vs MSST 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	22–24	L	U63
Very close	GT vs PITT 2025 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	28–42	L	O61.5
Very close	USC vs ND 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4.25	38–27	W	O62.75
Very close	TEX vs TCU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	10–17	L	U65.75
Very close	ORST vs WASH 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & rest	-1	20–22	L	U62.5
Very close	UTAH vs USC 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	43–42	L	O65
Close	KSU vs TCU 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	41–3	W	U60
Close	MD vs PUR 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	29–31	L	O59.5
Close	TCU vs OKST 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & total	-5	43–40	L	O70

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
VAN WWWWW	9-2	82%	3-1	3-1
TENN LWLLW	5-6	45%	2-4	4-5

Venue/role: VAN away, as underdog; TENN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
VAN OUOOO	7-4	64%	9-2
TENN UOOUU	7-4	64%	8-3

Went over in Q4. Of 78 earlier overs in games with totals 62.5–70.5, 19% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
VAN	8-2 80%	8-2 80%	7-3 70%
TENN	7-3 70%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

VAN 0–2 TENN TENN leads · 2 games since 2023 · TENN has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 30 2024	Tennessee 36 @ Vanderbilt 23	TENN -9.5	TENN W
Nov 25 2023	Vanderbilt 24 @ Tennessee 48	TENN -28	VAN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

VAN+3.1 →+15.4▲ 12.3#15

TENN+17.7 →+16.0▼ 1.7#13

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

VAN

Longer bar = better

TENN

Offense

Even

#68

Defense

Even

#66

+0.4 #39

Turnovers

Even

+0.3 #45

62 plays #124

Pace

TENN faster ▶

73 plays #11

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When VAN has the ball

Advantage: VAN offense

	VAN off	TENN def	Edge
Points / game	38.9 #9	27.3 #87	VAN
Yards / play	7.40 #2	5.26 #47	VAN
PPA / play	+0.40 #1	+0.04 #50	VAN
Success rate	53% #3	42% #80	VAN

When TENN has the ball

Advantage: TENN offense

	TENN off	VAN def	Edge
Points / game	42.3 #4	21.7 #42	TENN
Yards / play	6.73 #17	5.51 #65	TENN
PPA / play	+0.32 #5	+0.16 #105	TENN
Success rate	52% #6	41% #61	TENN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

VAN scoring against the TENN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
VAN scored	6.0 #69	12.5 #8	18.5 #21	10.4 #4	9.5 #16	19.8 #5
TENN allowed	4.1 #42	8.8 #94	12.9 #73	5.4 #65	8.5 #113	13.8 #99

TENN scoring against the VAN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TENN scored	14.5 #1	11.0 #23	25.5 #2	9.4 #11	6.5 #71	15.9 #25
VAN allowed	4.9 #58	7.3 #62	12.2 #61	3.6 #25	5.9 #53	9.5 #31

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.