Ole Miss @ Mississippi State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2025)

Fri, Nov 28, 2025, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Mississippi State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff46°F2 mphgusts 9DryWeather watch ›

Ole Miss

10-1 · Power #9

▲ winner

Final

Mississippi State

5-6 · Power #56

final

Closing spread

MISS -7.5

✓ MISS W

Total

62.5

▼ Under · 57 pts

Model before kickoff

MISS 36–27 MSST

✓ MISS (72%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenMISS -7.5

CloseMISS -7.5

Total62.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMISS -7.5

no move

CloseMISS -7.5

No change since the open

Total

Open62.5

no move

Close62.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MISS -7.5 · unchangedmodel MISS -11

model MISS -11

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 67%, covered 52% (148 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenMISS -7.5

CloseMISS -7.5

Total62.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MISS as a 7.5-point road favorite at MSST, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: MISS won 38–19; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 57 points stayed under 62.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.2 against an average line of 8.1; 66.4 points a game (usually 53.3). Of the 5 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UTAH @ BAY 2025 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & rest	-9.5	55–28	W	O60.5
Very close	OU @ OKST 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & total	-6	24–27	L	U62.5
Very close	OU @ KU 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & total	-7	33–38	L	O66.5
Very close	TEX @ KU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & total	-9	55–14	W	O63.5
Close	MIA @ GT 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar season form & total	-9.5	23–28	L	U65
Close	USC @ CAL 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & season form	-10.5	50–49	L	O67.5
Close	USC @ MD 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & situation	-6.5	28–29	L	O56
Close	MISS @ AUB 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar season form & situation	-6.5	28–21	W	U55.5
Close	UGA @ MSST 2025 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & spread	-9.5	41–21	W	O56.5
Close	TCU @ WVU 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & season form	-7	41–31	W	O69.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MISS LWWLL	6-5	55%	1-2	5-4
MSST WWWLL	7-3	70%	4-1	5-3

Venue/role: MISS away, as favorite; MSST home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MISS OOUUO	6-5	55%	10-1
MSST UOOOO	6-5	55%	5-6

Stayed under: it needed 26 in the 4th quarter and got 20. 46% of games with totals 58.5–66.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MISS	9-1 90%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
MSST	4-6 40%	6-3 67%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

MISS 2–0 MSST MISS leads · 2 games since 2023 · MISS has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 29 2024	Mississippi State 14 @ Ole Miss 26	MISS -26.5	MSST W
Nov 23 2023	Ole Miss 17 @ Mississippi State 7	MISS -10	P

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MISS+19.8 →+18.0▼ 1.8#12

MSST+0.7 →+5.5▲ 4.8#46

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

MISS

Longer bar = better

MSST

#17

Offense

◀ MISS better

#70

#47

Defense

◀ MISS better

#96

−0.3 #98

Turnovers

MSST better ▶

+0.3 #49

75 plays #5

Pace

Even

72 plays #15

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MISS has the ball

Advantage: MISS offense

	MISS off	MSST def	Edge
Points / game	37.2 #14	28.4 #94	MISS
Yards / play	6.60 #19	5.77 #90	MISS
PPA / play	+0.26 #16	+0.14 #89	MISS
Success rate	48% #20	45% #111	MISS

When MSST has the ball

Advantage: MISS defense

	MSST off	MISS def	Edge
Points / game	31.5 #43	20.2 #30	Even
Yards / play	5.46 #86	5.13 #39	MISS
PPA / play	+0.09 #81	+0.08 #66	Even
Success rate	43% #68	40% #52	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

MISS scoring against the MSST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MISS scored	7.7 #28	13.9 #1	21.6 #8	6.2 #59	9.4 #18	15.5 #32
MSST allowed	3.9 #40	8.1 #83	12.0 #57	5.5 #66	9.6 #129	15.1 #116

MSST scoring against the MISS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MSST scored	9.4 #11	5.3 #119	14.6 #70	7.9 #29	9.0 #26	16.9 #18
MISS allowed	4.4 #45	7.1 #62	11.5 #52	4.5 #41	4.3 #20	8.7 #19

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.