Tulane @ Ole Miss: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (CFP First Round, 2025)

Sat, Dec 20, 2025, 3:30 PM ESTCFP First Round · at Ole Miss

Weather at kickoff66°F9 mphgusts 25DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Tulane

11-2 · Power #57

final

Final

Ole Miss

11-1 · Power #9

▲ winner

Closing spread

MISS -16.5

✓ MISS W

Total

57.5

▼ Under · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

TULN 20–37 MISS

✓ MISS (89%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenMISS -16.5

CloseMISS -16.5

Total56.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMISS -16.5

no move

CloseMISS -16.5

No change since the open

Total

Open56.5

▲ 1

Close57.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MISS -16.5 · unchangedmodel MISS -19

model MISS -19

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 15.5–17.5 since 2023: won 91%, covered 48% (128 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenMISS -16.5

CloseMISS -16.5

Total56.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MISS as a 16.5-point home favorite against TULN, the favorite won 9, covered 7, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: MISS won 41–10; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 51 points stayed under 57.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 86%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 23 against an average line of 14.9; 60 points a game (usually 53). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ORE vs WASH 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & season form	-17.5	49–21	W	O50.5
Close	OU vs WVU 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar total & team ratings	-13	59–20	W	O59.5
Close	MIA vs NCSU 2025 · Week 12 · close · similar season form	-16.5	41–7	W	U54.5
Close	USC vs NU 2025 · Week 11 · close · similar season form & spread	-14.5	38–17	W	O54.5
Close	UGA vs MIZ 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar total & spread	-14.5	30–21	L	U55.5
Close	FSU vs MIA 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar season form & spread	-14.5	27–20	L	U50.5
Close	TENN vs MIZ 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar total & season form	-19	66–24	W	O57.5
Close	CLEM vs SC 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar season form & spread	-14	30–31	L	O53
Close	MISS vs TULN 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar team ratings & season form	-12.5	45–10	W	U61.5
Close	MISS vs SC 2025 · Week 10 · close · similar total & season form	-13	30–14	W	U55.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TULN WLWLW	7-6	54%	3-3	3-1
MISS WWLLW	7-5	58%	5-3	6-4

Venue/role: TULN away, as underdog; MISS home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TULN OUUUU	4-9	31%	11-2
MISS OUUOU	6-6	50%	11-1

Stayed under: it needed 28 in the 4th quarter and got 21. 50% of games with totals 53.5–61.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TULN	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	2-8 20%
MISS	9-1 90%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

TULN 0–2 MISS MISS leads · 2 games since 2023 · MISS has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 20 2025	Tulane 10 @ Ole Miss 45	MISS -11.5	MISS W
Sep 9 2023	Ole Miss 37 @ Tulane 20	MISS -13	MISS W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TULN+5.1 →+3.7▼ 1.4#57

MISS+19.8 →+18.2▼ 1.6#11

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

TULN

Longer bar = better

MISS

#38

Offense

MISS better ▶

#16

#68

Defense

MISS better ▶

#44

+0.8 #12

Turnovers

◀ TULN better

−0.2 #87

67 plays #67

Pace

MISS faster ▶

75 plays #6

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TULN has the ball

Even matchup

	TULN off	MISS def	Edge
Points / game	29.1 #57	20.1 #26	MISS
Yards / play	6.14 #34	5.20 #40	Even
PPA / play	+0.20 #29	+0.08 #62	TULN
Success rate	46% #33	40% #46	Even

When MISS has the ball

Advantage: MISS offense

	MISS off	TULN def	Edge
Points / game	37.3 #11	22.6 #50	MISS
Yards / play	6.66 #18	5.49 #62	MISS
PPA / play	+0.27 #13	+0.06 #57	MISS
Success rate	47% #23	44% #104	MISS

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

TULN scoring against the MISS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TULN scored	7.9 #25	10.8 #22	18.7 #17	4.4 #103	6.0 #88	10.4 #105
MISS allowed	4.6 #48	6.8 #51	11.3 #47	4.3 #38	4.4 #21	8.8 #21

MISS scoring against the TULN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MISS scored	8.3 #22	13.3 #3	21.6 #6	5.9 #66	9.8 #15	15.7 #27
TULN allowed	5.2 #66	5.4 #22	10.6 #39	3.3 #21	8.7 #122	12.0 #66

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.