Virginia vs Missouri: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (TaxSlayer Gator Bowl, 2025)

Sat, Dec 27, 2025, 7:30 PM ESTTaxSlayer Gator Bowl · Neutral site

Weather at kickoff67°F5 mphDryWeather watch ›

Virginia

10-3 · Power #32

▲ winner

Final

Missouri

8-4 · Power #18

final

Closing spread

MIZ -4

✓ UVA W

Total

43.5

▼ Under · 20 pts

Model before kickoff

UVA 23–27 MIZ

✗ MIZ (63%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenMIZ -7

CloseMIZ -4

Total50.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMIZ -7

3 → UVA

CloseMIZ -4

3 pts toward Virginia

Total

Open50.5

▼ 7

Close43.5

Down 7 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MIZ -7 · closed MIZ -4 · moved 3 toward UVAmodel MIZ -8

model MIZ -8

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Neutral-site favorites of 2–6 since 2023: won 52%, covered 42% (73 games)ⓘ

Moved off 7The team the line moved toward covered 68% (25 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenMIZ -7

CloseMIZ -4

Total50.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MIZ as a 4-point neutral-site favorite against UVA, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: UVA won 13–7 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 20 points stayed under 43.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 60%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.1 against an average line of 4.7; 52.5 points a game (usually 53). Of the 5 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BAY vs AFA 2022 · Postseason · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	15–30	L	O42.25
Close	CLEM vs UK 2023 · Postseason · close · similar spread & team ratings	-3.5	38–35	L	O44.5
Close	ND vs ORST 2023 · Postseason · close · similar situation & season form	-5.5	40–8	W	O40.5
Close	LOU vs CIN 2022 · Postseason · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	24–7	W	U38.5
Loose	GT vs VAN 2024 · Postseason · loose · similar rest & situation	-3	27–35	L	O49
Loose	PITT vs TOL 2024 · Postseason · loose · similar rest & situation	-6.5	46–48	L	O48.5
Loose	SJSU vs CCU 2023 · Postseason · loose · similar rest & situation	-7.5	14–24	L	U48.5
Loose	UTSA vs MRSH 2023 · Postseason · loose · similar rest & situation	-7.5	35–17	W	O46.75
Loose	WISC vs OKST 2022 · Postseason · loose · similar situation	-5	24–17	W	U45
Loose	OU vs NAVY 2024 · Postseason · loose · similar situation & rest	-2.5	20–21	L	U44

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
UVA WLWWL	8-5	62%	0-1	3-1
MIZ LLWLW	7-5	58%	—	6-2

Venue/role: UVA neutral, as underdog; MIZ neutral, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UVA UUUUU	5-8	38%	10-3
MIZ UOOUU	7-5	58%	8-4

Stayed under: it needed 24 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 54% of games with totals 39.5–47.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UVA	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	2-8 20%
MIZ	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UVA−1.6 →+7.9▲ 9.5#39

MIZ+10.7 →+15.2▲ 4.5#15

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

UVA

Longer bar = better

MIZ

#50

Offense

Even

#36

#31

Defense

Even

#17

+0.5 #26

Turnovers

◀ UVA better

−0.4 #106

74 plays #7

Pace

Even

72 plays #14

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UVA has the ball

Advantage: MIZ defense

	UVA off	MIZ def	Edge
Points / game	32.2 #31	19.4 #24	Even
Yards / play	5.77 #62	4.59 #13	MIZ
PPA / play	+0.16 #42	0.00 #22	Even
Success rate	43% #63	35% #9	MIZ

When MIZ has the ball

Even matchup

	MIZ off	UVA def	Edge
Points / game	32.2 #29	20.5 #32	Even
Yards / play	5.96 #44	4.95 #27	Even
PPA / play	+0.17 #40	+0.03 #38	Even
Success rate	46% #31	38% #25	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

UVA scoring against the MIZ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UVA scored	8.2 #21	9.8 #37	18.1 #21	7.5 #30	4.7 #120	12.2 #77
MIZ allowed	5.4 #71	5.7 #27	11.1 #42	4.4 #42	3.9 #13	8.3 #16

MIZ scoring against the UVA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIZ scored	6.4 #51	8.8 #62	15.2 #56	6.8 #39	9.7 #15	16.5 #19
UVA allowed	2.7 #12	7.4 #68	10.1 #29	4.9 #51	4.1 #17	9.0 #23

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.