LSU vs Houston: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Kinder's Texas Bowl, 2025)

Sat, Dec 27, 2025, 9:20 PM ESTKinder's Texas Bowl · Neutral site

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LSU

7-5 · Power #31

final

Final

Houston

9-3 · Power #49

▲ winner

Closing spread

HOU -1.5

✓ HOU W

Total

43.5

▲ Over · 73 pts

Model before kickoff

LSU 23–22 HOU

✗ LSU (51%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenHOU -1.5

CloseHOU -1.5

Total45.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenHOU -1.5

no move

CloseHOU -1.5

No change since the open

Total

Open45.5

▼ 2

Close43.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened HOU -1.5 · unchangedmodel LSU -7.5

model LSU -7.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Neutral-site favorites of 0.5–3.5 since 2023: won 50%, covered 47% (60 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenHOU -1.5

CloseHOU -1.5

Total45.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like HOU as a 1.5-point neutral-site favorite against LSU, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: HOU won 38–35; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 73 points went over 43.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.2 against an average line of 3.3; 42.6 points a game (usually 53). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	NIU vs FRES 2024 · Postseason · close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	28–20	W	O40.5
Close	MIZ vs IOWA 2024 · Postseason · close · similar spread & situation	-1.5	27–24	W	O41
Close	LOU vs CIN 2022 · Postseason · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	24–7	W	U38.5
Close	NCST vs MD 2022 · Postseason · close · similar season form & total	-2	12–16	L	U45.25
Close	AUB vs MD 2023 · Postseason · close · similar season form	-4	13–31	L	U48.5
Close	TROY vs DUKE 2023 · Postseason · close · similar rest & situation	-6.75	10–17	L	U44.25
Close	FRES vs WSU 2022 · Postseason · close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	29–6	W	U54
Close	TOL vs LIB 2022 · Postseason · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	21–19	L	U51
Close	M-OH vs CSU 2024 · Postseason · close · similar rest & spread	-1.5	43–17	W	O42.5
Loose	GT vs VAN 2024 · Postseason · loose · similar rest & spread	-3	27–35	L	O49

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
LSU LLLLW	4-8	33%	—	2-4
HOU WLWLW	8-4	67%	—	4-2

Venue/role: LSU neutral, as underdog; HOU neutral, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LSU OUUUU	3-9	25%	7-5
HOU UOOUU	7-5	58%	9-3

Went over in Q3. Of 344 earlier overs in games with totals 39.5–47.5, 36% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LSU	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	3-7 30%
HOU	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LSU+15.7 →+10.4▼ 5.3#28

HOU−1.8 →+3.8▲ 5.6#56

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

LSU

Longer bar = better

HOU

#111

Offense

HOU better ▶

#81

#21

Defense

◀ LSU better

#46

+0.7 #17

Turnovers

◀ LSU better

+0.3 #51

64 plays #101

Pace

HOU faster ▶

70 plays #27

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LSU has the ball

Advantage: HOU defense

	LSU off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	21.8 #109	21.8 #44	HOU
Yards / play	5.18 #108	5.19 #40	HOU
PPA / play	+0.01 #116	+0.03 #39	HOU
Success rate	38% #111	41% #60	HOU

When HOU has the ball

Advantage: LSU defense

	HOU off	LSU def	Edge
Points / game	28.3 #61	18.3 #14	LSU
Yards / play	5.56 #79	5.01 #32	LSU
PPA / play	+0.05 #99	−0.03 #16	LSU
Success rate	41% #86	38% #22	LSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

LSU scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LSU scored	2.8 #129	8.7 #64	11.5 #103	5.2 #89	5.2 #111	10.3 #106
HOU allowed	6.2 #91	6.2 #36	12.3 #66	1.6 #2	7.9 #103	9.5 #32

HOU scoring against the LSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	5.1 #91	9.8 #38	14.8 #63	7.1 #35	6.2 #86	13.3 #55
LSU allowed	5.0 #56	4.3 #10	9.3 #18	5.0 #53	4.0 #16	9.0 #24

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.