Michigan vs Texas: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Cheez-It Citrus Bowl, 2025)

Wed, Dec 31, 2025, 3:00 PM ESTCheez-It Citrus Bowl · Neutral site

Weather at kickoff55°F7 mphgusts 19DryWeather watch ›

Michigan

9-3 · Power #21

final

Final

Texas

9-3 · Power #14

▲ winner

Closing spread

TEX -4

✓ TEX W

Total

50.5

▲ Over · 68 pts

Model before kickoff

MICH 22–25 TEX

✓ TEX (60%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenTEX -4.5

CloseTEX -4

Total46.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTEX -4.5

0.5 → MICH

CloseTEX -4

0.5 pts toward Michigan

Total

Open46.5

▲ 4

Close50.5

Up 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TEX -4.5 · closed TEX -4 · moved 0.5 toward MICHmodel TEX -1

model TEX -1

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Neutral-site favorites of 2–6 since 2023: won 50%, covered 39% (78 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenTEX -4.5

CloseTEX -4

Total46.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TEX as a 4-point neutral-site favorite against MICH, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: TEX won 41–27; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 68 points went over 50.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 60%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1.3 against an average line of 2.9; 53.7 points a game (usually 53). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	USC vs TA&M 2024 · Postseason · very close · similar season form & spread	-3.5	35–31	W	O56.5
Close	TA&M vs ARK 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar total & season form	-1.5	23–21	W	U51
Close	UGA vs ALA 2025 · Week 15 · close · similar spread & season form	-1.5	28–7	W	U48.5
Close	ORE vs PSU 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar spread	-3.5	45–37	W	O51.5
Close	PSU vs UTAH 2022 · Postseason · close · similar situation & team ratings	-1.5	35–21	W	O55
Close	COLO vs BYU 2024 · Postseason · close · similar spread & situation	-3	14–36	L	U55.5
Close	NEB vs BC 2024 · Postseason · close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	20–15	W	U47.5
Close	SMU vs CLEM 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	31–34	L	O56.5
Close	TEX vs UGA 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar spread & total	-3	19–22	L	U51
Close	PSU vs MISS 2023 · Postseason · close · similar total & situation	-5.5	25–38	L	O52.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
MICH LLLWL	4-8	33%	—	0-3
TEX LLLWW	4-8	33%	1-0	3-6

Venue/role: MICH neutral, as underdog; TEX neutral, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MICH OUOOU	6-6	50%	9-3
TEX OOUOU	5-7	42%	9-3

Went over in Q4. Of 650 earlier overs in games with totals 46.5–54.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MICH	8-2 80%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
TEX	8-2 80%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

MICH 0–1 TEX TEX leads · 1 game since 2023 · TEX has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 7 2024	Texas 31 @ Michigan 12	TEX -6.5	TEX W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MICH+12.2 →+14.1▲ 1.9#18

TEX+23.2 →+14.8▼ 8.4#16

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

MICH

Longer bar = better

TEX

#44

Offense

◀ MICH better

#64

#35

Defense

Even

#34

+0.3 #43

Turnovers

TEX better ▶

+1.0 #7

63 plays #108

Pace

TEX faster ▶

65 plays #93

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MICH has the ball

Even matchup

	MICH off	TEX def	Edge
Points / game	27.6 #68	19.8 #25	TEX
Yards / play	6.29 #26	4.95 #27	Even
PPA / play	+0.16 #46	+0.02 #36	Even
Success rate	45% #37	40% #48	Even

When TEX has the ball

Advantage: MICH defense

	TEX off	MICH def	Edge
Points / game	29.6 #49	18.7 #17	MICH
Yards / play	5.88 #48	4.77 #18	MICH
PPA / play	+0.12 #59	+0.02 #35	MICH
Success rate	40% #101	42% #70	MICH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

MICH scoring against the TEX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MICH scored	6.8 #39	6.6 #101	13.4 #80	8.0 #22	6.2 #85	14.2 #44
TEX allowed	2.8 #13	7.3 #63	10.0 #27	1.9 #4	7.8 #101	9.8 #32

TEX scoring against the MICH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEX scored	6.3 #57	6.8 #97	13.2 #84	8.4 #17	7.2 #58	15.6 #26
MICH allowed	2.6 #9	7.3 #68	9.9 #26	3.1 #16	5.7 #45	8.8 #21

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.