Alabama @ Oklahoma: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (CFP First Round, 2025)

Fri, Dec 19, 2025, 8:00 PM ESTCFP First Round · at Oklahoma

Weather at kickoff52°F17 mphgusts 31DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Alabama

10-3 · Power #11

▲ winner

Final

Oklahoma

10-2 · Power #16

final

Closing spread

OU -2.5

✓ ALA W

Total

42.5

▲ Over · 58 pts

Model before kickoff

ALA 19–21 OU

✗ OU (55%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenALA -1.5

CloseOU -2.5

Total41.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenALA -1.5

4 → OU

CloseOU -2.5

4 pts toward Oklahoma

Total

Open41.5

▲ 1

Close42.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ALA -1.5 · closed OU -2.5 · moved 4 toward OUmodel ALA -1.5

model ALA -1.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 52% (319 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 46% (159 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenALA -1.5

CloseOU -2.5

Total41.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like OU as a 2.5-point home favorite against ALA, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: ALA won 34–24 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 58 points went over 42.5, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.8 against an average line of 2.8; 53.4 points a game (usually 52.8). Of the 6 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MIA vs LOU 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar season form & spread	-1	31–38	L	O46.5
Close	IOWA vs PSU 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar total & team ratings	-3	25–24	L	O41.5
Loose	ARIZ vs UTAH 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar spread & total	-2.5	42–18	W	O45.5
Loose	ISU vs BYU 2025 · Week 9 · loose · similar season form	-2.5	27–41	L	O49
Loose	TA&M vs MIZ 2024 · Week 6 · loose	-2.5	41–10	W	O47.5
Loose	UGA vs TEX 2025 · Week 12 · loose · similar season form	-3.5	35–10	W	U50.5
Loose	WISC vs MINN 2022 · Week 13 · loose · similar season form	-3	16–23	L	O37
Loose	AUB vs OU 2024 · Week 5 · loose · similar spread & season form	-2	21–27	L	O43
Loose	MSST vs TA&M 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar season form	-4	42–24	W	O45
Loose	UK vs LOU 2022 · Week 13 · loose · similar total	-3.5	26–13	W	U42.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ALA WLWPL	7-5-1	58%	1-3-1	1-1
OU LWWWL	7-5	58%	3-4	5-4

Venue/role: ALA away, as underdog; OU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ALA UUUUU	5-8	38%	10-3
OU OOUUU	2-10	17%	10-2

Went over in Q3. Of 277 earlier overs in games with totals 38.5–46.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ALA	8-2 80%	5-4-1 56%	2-8 20%
OU	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

ALA 0–2 OU OU leads · 2 games since 2023 · OU has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 15 2025	Oklahoma 23 @ Alabama 21	ALA -6.5	OU W
Nov 23 2024	Alabama 3 @ Oklahoma 24	ALA -14.5	OU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ALA+21.0 →+19.9▼ 1.1#8

OU+11.4 →+15.7▲ 4.3#14

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

ALA

Longer bar = better

#49

Offense

◀ ALA better

#92

#19

Defense

Even

+0.5 #29

Turnovers

◀ ALA better

−0.2 #85

68 plays #54

Pace

◀ ALA faster

66 plays #81

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ALA has the ball

Advantage: OU defense

	ALA off	OU def	Edge
Points / game	31.2 #39	13.9 #7	OU
Yards / play	5.72 #70	4.25 #7	OU
PPA / play	+0.18 #35	−0.05 #11	OU
Success rate	44% #51	32% #4	OU

When OU has the ball

Advantage: ALA defense

	OU off	ALA def	Edge
Points / game	26.4 #78	17.4 #13	ALA
Yards / play	5.37 #96	4.82 #21	ALA
PPA / play	+0.05 #101	0.00 #23	ALA
Success rate	41% #93	37% #19	ALA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

ALA scoring against the OU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ALA scored	6.9 #35	11.4 #17	18.3 #21	5.2 #89	7.8 #40	12.9 #61
OU allowed	2.2 #3	4.3 #10	6.5 #6	4.2 #36	3.3 #8	7.4 #12

OU scoring against the ALA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OU scored	5.9 #73	8.8 #65	14.7 #67	7.6 #30	4.2 #126	11.8 #83
ALA allowed	3.2 #23	5.2 #16	8.3 #12	4.8 #50	4.2 #19	9.1 #27

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.