Ole Miss vs Georgia: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Allstate Sugar Bowl · CFP Quarterfinal, 2025)

Thu, Jan 1, 2026, 8:00 PM ESTAllstate Sugar Bowl · CFP Quarterfinal · Neutral site

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Ole Miss

12-1 · Power #9

▲ winner

Final

Georgia

12-1 · Power #7

final

Closing spread

UGA -6

✓ MISS W

Total

53.5

▲ Over · 73 pts

Model before kickoff

MISS 26–31 UGA

✗ UGA (65%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUGA -6.5

CloseUGA -6

Total56.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUGA -6.5

0.5 → MISS

CloseUGA -6

0.5 pts toward Ole Miss

Total

Open56.5

▼ 3

Close53.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UGA -6.5 · closed UGA -6 · moved 0.5 toward MISSmodel UGA -2.5

model UGA -2.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Neutral-site favorites of 4–8 since 2023: won 60%, covered 38% (53 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUGA -6.5

CloseUGA -6

Total56.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UGA as a 6-point neutral-site favorite against MISS, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: MISS won 39–34 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 73 points went over 53.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 65%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.4 against an average line of 5.4; 51.4 points a game (usually 52.8). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MICH vs TCU 2022 · Postseason · very close · similar situation & rest	-8	45–51	L	O56
Close	UGA vs ALA 2023 · Week 14 · close · similar total & spread	-5	24–27	L	U53.5
Close	TEX vs WASH 2023 · Postseason · close · similar situation & team ratings	-3.5	31–37	L	O61.5
Close	OSU vs TEX 2024 · Postseason · close · similar situation & spread	-5.5	28–14	W	U51.5
Close	ORST vs FLA 2022 · Postseason · close · similar situation & total	-7.5	30–3	W	U51.75
Close	CLEM vs TENN 2022 · Postseason · close · similar season form & spread	-4	14–31	L	U61.5
Close	UGA vs FLA 2025 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & rest	-7	24–20	L	U50.5
Close	OSU vs MIZ 2023 · Postseason · close · similar situation & spread	-4	3–14	L	U51
Close	TA&M vs ARK 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar total & season form	-6.5	34–22	W	O54
Close	OSU vs ORE 2024 · Postseason · close · similar season form & situation	-2.5	41–21	W	O55.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
MISS WLLWW	8-5	62%	—	1-1
UGA WWLLW	6-7	46%	1-2	6-7

Venue/role: MISS neutral, as underdog; UGA neutral, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MISS UUOUU	6-7	46%	12-1
UGA OUUUU	4-9	31%	12-1

Went over in Q4. Of 600 earlier overs in games with totals 49.5–57.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MISS	9-1 90%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%
UGA	9-1 90%	6-4 60%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

MISS 15–34 UGA (1 tied) UGA leads · 50 games since 1940 · MISS has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 18 2025	Ole Miss 35 @ Georgia 43	UGA -7.5	UGA W
Nov 9 2024	Georgia 10 @ Ole Miss 28	UGA -1.5	MISS W
Nov 11 2023	Ole Miss 17 @ Georgia 52	UGA -11	UGA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MISS+19.8 →+18.2▼ 1.6#11

UGA+21.0 →+20.5▼ 0.5#6

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

MISS

Longer bar = better

UGA

#14

Offense

◀ MISS better

#33

#42

Defense

UGA better ▶

#20

0.0 #73

Turnovers

Even

0.0 #74

74 plays #5

Pace

Even

71 plays #15

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MISS has the ball

Even matchup

	MISS off	UGA def	Edge
Points / game	37.5 #10	15.9 #9	Even
Yards / play	6.70 #15	4.78 #18	Even
PPA / play	+0.27 #13	+0.02 #32	Even
Success rate	48% #17	37% #21	Even

When UGA has the ball

Even matchup

	UGA off	MISS def	Edge
Points / game	31.9 #30	19.3 #22	Even
Yards / play	5.71 #66	5.27 #44	MISS
PPA / play	+0.23 #20	+0.06 #51	UGA
Success rate	49% #14	40% #49	UGA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

MISS scoring against the UGA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MISS scored	8.7 #14	12.5 #5	21.2 #7	6.2 #59	10.1 #9	16.3 #20
UGA allowed	5.0 #55	3.6 #8	8.6 #13	3.7 #25	3.4 #9	7.1 #8

UGA scoring against the MISS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UGA scored	6.4 #49	10.2 #25	16.6 #37	7.9 #24	6.9 #61	14.8 #35
MISS allowed	4.2 #41	6.5 #42	10.7 #38	4.0 #32	4.6 #23	8.6 #19

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.