Georgia vs Florida: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2025)

Sat, Nov 1, 2025, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 10 · Neutral site · Conference game

Weather at kickoff69°F2 mphgusts 8DryWeather watch ›

Georgia

6-1 · Power #7

▲ winner

Final

Florida

3-4 · Power #37

final

Closing spread

UGA -6.5

✓ FLA W

Total

50.5

▼ Under · 44 pts

Model before kickoff

UGA 28–21 FLA

✓ UGA (69%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUGA -7.5

CloseUGA -6.5

Total50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUGA -7.5

1 → FLA

CloseUGA -6.5

1 pt toward Florida

Total

Open50.5

no move

Close50.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UGA -7.5 · closed UGA -6.5 · moved 1 toward FLAmodel UGA -9.5

model UGA -9.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 57% (72 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUGA -7.5

CloseUGA -6.5

Total50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UGA as a 6.5-point neutral-site favorite against FLA, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: UGA won 24–20; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 44 points stayed under 50.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 68%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.2 against an average line of 6.1; 48.4 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	KSU vs RUTG 2024 · Postseason · very close · similar rest & total	-7.25	44–41	L	O52
Close	KSU vs NCSU 2023 · Postseason · close · similar total	-3.5	28–19	W	U48.5
Close	OSU vs MIZ 2023 · Postseason · close · similar total & spread	-4	3–14	L	U51
Close	ND vs SC 2022 · Postseason · close · similar total & season form	-5	45–38	W	O50.5
Close	SC vs ILL 2024 · Postseason · close	-9.5	17–21	L	U50
Loose	NEB vs BC 2024 · Postseason · loose · similar rest	-3.5	20–15	W	U47.5
Loose	TROY vs DUKE 2023 · Postseason · loose · similar rest & spread	-6.75	10–17	L	U44.25
Loose	ND vs BYU 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar total	-3.5	28–20	W	U51.5
Loose	UGA vs FLA 2024 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest & total	-14.5	34–20	L	O52.5
Loose	COLO vs BYU 2024 · Postseason · loose · similar rest	-3	14–36	L	U55.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
UGA LLWWW	3-4	43%	—	3-4
FLA LLWLL	2-5	29%	—	1-3

Venue/role: UGA neutral, as favorite; FLA neutral, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UGA OUUUO	3-4	43%	6-1
FLA UUOOU	2-5	29%	3-4

Stayed under: it needed 17 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 54% of games with totals 46.5–54.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UGA	8-2 80%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
FLA	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

UGA 2–0 FLA UGA leads · 2 games since 2023 · UGA has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 2 2024	Florida 20 @ Georgia 34	UGA -14.5	FLA W
Oct 28 2023	Georgia 43 @ Florida 20	UGA -14	UGA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UGA+21.0 →+20.3▼ 0.7#6

FLA+13.1 →+11.8▼ 1.3#26

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

UGA

Longer bar = better

FLA

#35

Offense

◀ UGA better

#90

#46

Defense

Even

#44

−0.1 #87

Turnovers

◀ UGA better

−0.4 #106

73 plays #17

Pace

◀ UGA faster

66 plays #78

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UGA has the ball

Even matchup

	UGA off	FLA def	Edge
Points / game	33.7 #41	20.0 #34	Even
Yards / play	5.86 #61	5.35 #58	Even
PPA / play	+0.23 #28	+0.06 #50	UGA
Success rate	51% #11	38% #32	UGA

When FLA has the ball

Advantage: UGA defense

	FLA off	UGA def	Edge
Points / game	22.4 #105	19.6 #31	UGA
Yards / play	5.51 #86	4.98 #31	UGA
PPA / play	+0.07 #103	+0.09 #66	UGA
Success rate	43% #67	40% #56	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

UGA scoring against the FLA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UGA scored	6.4 #65	9.7 #51	16.1 #56	9.7 #9	7.0 #64	16.7 #29
FLA allowed	4.0 #41	5.6 #32	9.6 #33	3.7 #34	6.7 #77	10.4 #43

FLA scoring against the UGA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FLA scored	6.7 #59	8.0 #79	14.7 #71	4.3 #109	3.4 #128	7.7 #129
UGA allowed	6.0 #81	6.3 #50	12.3 #66	3.4 #30	3.4 #11	6.9 #8

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.