Ole Miss @ Georgia: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2025)

Sat, Oct 18, 2025, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Georgia · Conference game

Weather at kickoff78°F7 mphgusts 18DryWeather watch ›

Ole Miss

6-0 · Power #9

final

Final

Georgia

5-1 · Power #7

▲ winner

Closing spread

UGA -7.5

✓ UGA W

Total

56.5

▲ Over · 78 pts

Model before kickoff

MISS 24–32 UGA

✓ UGA (70%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUGA -6.5

CloseUGA -7.5

Total54.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUGA -6.5

1 → UGA

CloseUGA -7.5

1 pt toward Georgia

Total

Open54.5

▲ 2

Close56.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UGA -6.5 · closed UGA -7.5 · moved 1 toward UGAmodel UGA -6.5

model UGA -6.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 72%, covered 56% (165 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 58% (64 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUGA -6.5

CloseUGA -7.5

Total54.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UGA as a 7.5-point home favorite against MISS, the favorite won 9, covered 6, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: UGA won 43–35; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 78 points went over 56.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 14.4 against an average line of 7.1; 48 points a game (usually 53.4). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	KSU vs OKST 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & rest	-6	42–20	W	O58
Very close	KSU vs TCU 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & rest	-5.5	41–3	W	U60
Very close	TA&M vs AUB 2025 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & season form	-6.5	16–10	L	U51.5
Very close	CLEM vs LOU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7	31–16	W	U52
Close	LOU vs PITT 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	37–9	W	U57.5
Close	KSU vs KU 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & rest	-10	29–27	L	P56
Close	TEX vs BAY 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-10	38–27	W	O55.25
Close	TEX vs TCU 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	10–17	L	U65.75
Close	KSU vs CIN 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & total	-7.5	41–15	W	O54.5
Close	ASU vs TCU 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & rest	-3	27–24	P	U54.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MISS LWWWL	4-2	67%	0-1	—
UGA LLLWW	2-4	33%	1-3	2-4

Venue/role: MISS away, as underdog; UGA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MISS OOUUU	3-3	50%	6-0
UGA UOUUU	2-4	33%	5-1

Went over in Q3. Of 455 earlier overs in games with totals 52.5–60.5, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MISS	9-1 90%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
UGA	8-2 80%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

MISS 15–34 UGA (1 tied) UGA leads · 50 games since 1940 · MISS has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 9 2024	Georgia 10 @ Ole Miss 28	UGA -1.5	MISS W
Nov 11 2023	Ole Miss 17 @ Georgia 52	UGA -11	UGA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MISS+19.8 →+16.8▼ 3.0#12

UGA+21.0 →+19.7▼ 1.3#7

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

MISS

Longer bar = better

UGA

#20

Offense

◀ MISS better

#47

#58

Defense

UGA better ▶

#33

−0.7 #117

Turnovers

UGA better ▶

−0.2 #87

74 plays #13

Pace

Even

72 plays #23

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MISS has the ball

Even matchup

	MISS off	UGA def	Edge
Points / game	37.8 #20	17.0 #19	Even
Yards / play	6.93 #18	4.84 #32	Even
PPA / play	+0.27 #25	+0.04 #43	Even
Success rate	50% #16	39% #36	Even

When UGA has the ball

Even matchup

	UGA off	MISS def	Edge
Points / game	32.2 #49	19.2 #34	Even
Yards / play	5.76 #66	5.26 #52	Even
PPA / play	+0.19 #45	+0.13 #84	UGA
Success rate	48% #26	41% #61	UGA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

MISS scoring against the UGA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MISS scored	4.5 #98	16.0 #1	20.5 #23	6.8 #57	10.5 #15	17.3 #24
UGA allowed	5.8 #83	5.0 #24	10.8 #52	1.7 #6	4.0 #26	5.7 #8

UGA scoring against the MISS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UGA scored	7.0 #52	8.5 #75	15.5 #63	10.3 #7	5.3 #96	15.7 #38
MISS allowed	4.7 #62	6.2 #51	10.8 #52	3.3 #29	5.0 #38	8.3 #23

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.