Ole Miss @ Oklahoma: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2025)

Sat, Oct 25, 2025, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Oklahoma · Conference game

Weather at kickoff64°F4 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

Ole Miss

6-1 · Power #9

▲ winner

Final

Oklahoma

6-1 · Power #16

final

Closing spread

OU -5.5

✓ MISS W

Total

52.5

▲ Over · 60 pts

Model before kickoff

MISS 25–30 OU

✗ OU (64%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenOU -4.5

CloseOU -5.5

Total50.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenOU -4.5

1 → OU

CloseOU -5.5

1 pt toward Oklahoma

Total

Open50.5

▲ 2

Close52.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened OU -4.5 · closed OU -5.5 · moved 1 toward OUmodel OU -2.5

model OU -2.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 68%, covered 56% (160 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (208 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenOU -4.5

CloseOU -5.5

Total50.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like OU as a 5.5-point home favorite against MISS, the favorite won 9, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: MISS won 34–26 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 60 points went over 52.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 63%

Favorite covered

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 11.5 against an average line of 4.2; 51.1 points a game (usually 53). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TA&M vs LSU 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & situation	-2	38–23	W	O54.5
Very close	KSU vs TCU 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & rest	-5.5	41–3	W	U60
Very close	TA&M vs AUB 2025 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & total	-6.5	16–10	L	U51.5
Very close	CLEM vs LOU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7	31–16	W	U52
Very close	KSU vs OKST 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6	42–20	W	O58
Very close	NCST vs FSU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	19–17	L	U50.5
Close	ASU vs TCU 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & rest	-3	27–24	P	U54.5
Close	BAY vs OKST 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & total	-2.5	25–36	L	O56
Close	TULN vs UCF 2022 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	45–28	W	O57.5
Close	ISU vs KSU 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & situation	-2	29–21	W	U51.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MISS WWWLL	4-3	57%	0-2	0-1
OU WWLLW	4-3	57%	2-2	4-2

Venue/role: MISS away, as underdog; OU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MISS OUUUO	4-3	57%	6-1
OU UUUUU	0-7	0%	6-1

Went over in Q4. Of 540 earlier overs in games with totals 48.5–56.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MISS	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
OU	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	1-9 10%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

MISS 1–0 OU MISS leads · 1 game since 2023 · MISS has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 26 2024	Oklahoma 14 @ Ole Miss 26	MISS -19.5	OU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MISS+19.8 →+16.3▼ 3.5#14

OU+11.4 →+16.0▲ 4.6#15

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

MISS

Longer bar = better

#18

Offense

◀ MISS better

#69

#86

Defense

OU better ▶

−0.6 #113

Turnovers

Even

−0.7 #118

72 plays #25

Pace

Even

70 plays #31

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MISS has the ball

Even matchup

	MISS off	OU def	Edge
Points / game	37.4 #16	9.4 #2	Even
Yards / play	6.80 #21	3.68 #1	Even
PPA / play	+0.28 #18	−0.10 #6	Even
Success rate	50% #15	29% #1	Even

When OU has the ball

Even matchup

	OU off	MISS def	Edge
Points / game	28.7 #71	22.6 #53	Even
Yards / play	5.44 #92	5.45 #69	MISS
PPA / play	+0.13 #74	+0.18 #109	OU
Success rate	46% #40	45% #111	OU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

MISS scoring against the OU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MISS scored	4.9 #96	15.7 #1	20.6 #17	7.9 #31	9.0 #31	16.9 #26
OU allowed	0.4 #1	2.9 #6	3.3 #2	3.7 #36	2.4 #3	6.1 #9

OU scoring against the MISS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OU scored	6.9 #52	9.7 #51	16.6 #52	7.9 #31	4.3 #114	12.1 #83
MISS allowed	4.4 #52	7.7 #86	12.1 #67	3.7 #36	6.7 #72	10.4 #50

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.