Western Kentucky @ Louisiana Tech: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2025)

Tue, Oct 21, 2025, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Louisiana Tech · Conference game

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Western Kentucky

5-2 · Power #94

▲ winner

Final

Louisiana Tech

4-2 · Power #93

final

Closing spread

LT -4.5

✓ WKU W

Total

48.5

▲ Over · 55 pts

Model before kickoff

WKU 23–28 LT

✗ LT (63%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLT -2.5

CloseLT -4.5

Total50.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLT -2.5

2 → LT

CloseLT -4.5

2 pts toward Louisiana Tech

Total

Open50.5

▼ 2

Close48.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LT -2.5 · closed LT -4.5 · moved 2 toward LTmodel LT -5

model LT -5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 52% (185 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 46% (90 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLT -2.5

CloseLT -4.5

Total50.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LT as a 4.5-point home favorite against WKU, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: WKU won 28–27 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 55 points went over 48.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.2 against an average line of 4.2; 48.4 points a game (usually 53). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	EMU vs CMU 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	38–34	W	O52.5
Very close	FRES vs CSU 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	28–22	W	O43.5
Very close	USM vs GAST 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & situation	-2	14–42	L	O48
Very close	JXST vs EMU 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	21–0	W	U51
Very close	ODU vs MRSH 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & season form	-3	35–42	L	O51.5
Very close	NIU vs TOL 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar season form & situation	-3	6–13	L	U42.5
Very close	TROY vs CCU 2022 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & season form	-6.5	45–26	W	O49
Very close	TXST vs ARST 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & spread	-6	16–13	L	U50
Close	USM vs ARST 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & spread	-4.5	20–19	L	U53
Close	LT vs USM 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar team ratings & spread	-3	30–20	W	U51.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WKU LWWWL	5-2	71%	2-1	1-1
LT WWWWL	5-1	83%	3-0	4-1

Venue/role: WKU away, as underdog; LT home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WKU OUUUU	3-4	43%	5-2
LT UOUUU	1-5	17%	4-2

Went over in OT. Of 503 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–52.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WKU	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
LT	6-4 60%	8-2 80%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

WKU 1–1 LT Series tied · 2 games since 2023 · LT has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 16 2024	Louisiana Tech 12 @ Western Kentucky 7	WKU -11.5	LT W
Oct 5 2023	Western Kentucky 35 @ Louisiana Tech 28	WKU -8	LT W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WKU−8.3 →−10.4▼ 2.1#106

LT−11.6 →−8.2▲ 3.4#99

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

WKU

Longer bar = better

#56

Offense

◀ WKU better

#112

#65

Defense

LT better ▶

#20

−0.3 #98

Turnovers

LT better ▶

+1.0 #10

69 plays #44

Pace

◀ WKU faster

66 plays #85

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WKU has the ball

Advantage: LT defense

	WKU off	LT def	Edge
Points / game	29.7 #61	17.2 #20	LT
Yards / play	6.08 #49	5.10 #40	Even
PPA / play	+0.16 #59	−0.06 #9	LT
Success rate	45% #55	36% #12	LT

When LT has the ball

Advantage: WKU defense

	LT off	WKU def	Edge
Points / game	24.5 #89	23.1 #60	WKU
Yards / play	4.75 #125	5.83 #102	WKU
PPA / play	+0.03 #118	+0.10 #67	WKU
Success rate	39% #114	38% #29	WKU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

WKU scoring against the LT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WKU scored	4.9 #93	9.1 #63	14.0 #80	7.9 #31	7.9 #51	15.7 #37
LT allowed	2.8 #23	5.2 #26	8.0 #17	2.8 #18	6.3 #64	9.2 #32

LT scoring against the WKU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LT scored	6.8 #55	5.5 #116	12.3 #96	4.0 #111	8.2 #47	12.2 #82
WKU allowed	6.6 #101	8.0 #90	14.6 #93	6.3 #94	2.3 #3	8.6 #22

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.