South Alabama @ Georgia State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2025)

Thu, Oct 23, 2025, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Georgia State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff66°F4 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

South Alabama

1-6 · Power #102

▲ winner

Final

Georgia State

1-6 · Power #125

final

Closing spread

USA -5.5

✓ USA W

Total

54.5

▲ Over · 69 pts

Model before kickoff

USA 31–25 GAST

✓ USA (65%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSA -6.5

CloseUSA -5.5

Total53.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUSA -6.5

1 → GAST

CloseUSA -5.5

1 pt toward Georgia State

Total

Open53.5

▲ 1

Close54.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened USA -6.5 · closed USA -5.5 · moved 1 toward GASTmodel USA -4.5

model USA -4.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 49% (128 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (242 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSA -6.5

CloseUSA -5.5

Total53.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like USA as a 5.5-point road favorite at GAST, the favorite won 6, covered 3, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: USA won 38–31; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 69 points went over 54.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 63%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.1 against an average line of 5.2; 54.1 points a game (usually 53). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	APP @ GAST 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & season form	-3	41–20	W	O55.5
Very close	CSU @ HAW 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-5.5	24–27	L	U53.75
Very close	WMU @ CMU 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & total	-6	14–16	L	U56
Very close	COLO @ CSU 2024 · Week 3 · very close · similar season form & spread	-7.5	28–9	W	U58.5
Very close	UL @ EMU 2025 · Week 4 · very close · similar season form & total	-2.5	31–34	L	O51.5
Very close	RICE @ UAB 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & situation	-7	14–40	L	O52.25
Very close	ARST @ USM 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & spread	-7	44–28	W	O56.5
Very close	EMU @ AKR 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & situation	-6.25	34–28	L	O57.25
Close	MOST @ MTSU 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-3	22–20	L	U51.5
Close	USU @ CONN 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & situation	-4.5	34–33	L	O51

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USA WLLLL	2-5	29%	1-2	0-4
GAST LLWLL	1-6	14%	1-3	1-5

Venue/role: USA away, as favorite; GAST home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USA UOUOU	4-3	57%	1-6
GAST UOUOO	4-3	57%	1-6

Went over in Q4. Of 504 earlier overs in games with totals 50.5–58.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USA	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%
GAST	2-8 20%	2-8 20%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USA−2.3 →−8.7▼ 6.4#100

GAST−9.1 →−16.2▼ 7.1#126

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

USA

Longer bar = better

GAST

#98

Offense

Even

#98

#103

Defense

◀ USA better

#130

0.0 #78

Turnovers

◀ USA better

−0.7 #117

68 plays #46

Pace

◀ USA faster

67 plays #64

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USA has the ball

Advantage: USA offense

	USA off	GAST def	Edge
Points / game	23.4 #97	41.1 #137	USA
Yards / play	5.35 #97	6.41 #126	USA
PPA / play	+0.07 #104	+0.24 #129	USA
Success rate	41% #95	48% #127	USA

When GAST has the ball

Even matchup

	GAST off	USA def	Edge
Points / game	18.9 #123	29.3 #104	Even
Yards / play	5.27 #103	5.56 #75	USA
PPA / play	+0.11 #87	+0.21 #123	GAST
Success rate	43% #77	45% #108	GAST

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

USA scoring against the GAST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USA scored	6.4 #59	4.3 #125	10.7 #112	5.7 #73	7.0 #68	12.7 #72
GAST allowed	6.4 #96	10.9 #122	17.3 #120	11.4 #134	12.4 #134	23.9 #136

GAST scoring against the USA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GAST scored	5.7 #76	5.6 #114	11.3 #105	4.9 #92	2.7 #131	7.6 #128
USA allowed	6.0 #88	7.9 #91	13.9 #88	6.9 #101	7.6 #99	14.4 #108

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.