Arkansas State @ South Alabama: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2025)

Tue, Oct 14, 2025, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 8 · at South Alabama · Conference game

Weather at kickoff78°F6 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

Arkansas State

2-4 · Power #110

▲ winner

Final

South Alabama

1-5 · Power #102

final

Closing spread

USA -8.5

✓ ARST W

Total

57.5

▼ Under · 29 pts

Model before kickoff

ARST 25–33 USA

✗ USA (73%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSA -7.5

CloseUSA -8.5

Total57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUSA -7.5

1 → USA

CloseUSA -8.5

1 pt toward South Alabama

Total

Open57.5

no move

Close57.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened USA -7.5 · closed USA -8.5 · moved 1 toward USAmodel USA -9

model USA -9

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 7.5–9.5 since 2023: won 73%, covered 52% (131 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 51% (198 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSA -7.5

CloseUSA -8.5

Total57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like USA as an 8.5-point home favorite against ARST, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: ARST won 15–14 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 29 points stayed under 57.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 52%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 4.6 against an average line of 6.9; 51.4 points a game (usually 53.7). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	USF vs CLT 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & season form	-7	48–14	W	O56.75
Very close	ARMY vs ULM 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & situation	-6.5	48–24	W	O55.5
Very close	WMU vs EMU 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & season form	-6.5	26–18	W	U55.5
Very close	KENT vs EMU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & situation	-7.5	24–31	L	U60
Very close	KENT vs BALL 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & season form	-7	20–27	L	U61.75
Very close	BOIS vs SJSU 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & situation	-8	35–27	P	O57.5
Very close	NAVY vs UNT 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & spread	-6.5	27–24	L	U60.5
Very close	NU vs M-OH 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & season form	-7.5	14–17	L	U50
Very close	NIU vs CMU 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & season form	-4.5	22–35	L	O54
Close	CMU vs BALL 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-7.5	16–17	L	U63.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ARST LWLLW	3-3	50%	0-3	2-2
USA WWLLL	2-4	33%	1-2	0-3

Venue/role: ARST away, as underdog; USA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARST OUUUU	2-4	33%	2-4
USA OUOUO	4-2	67%	1-5

Stayed under: it needed 41 in the 4th quarter and got 12. 51% of games with totals 53.5–61.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARST	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
USA	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

ARST 1–1 USA Series tied · 2 games since 2023 · ARST has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 5 2024	South Alabama 16 @ Arkansas State 18	USA -2.5	ARST W
Nov 11 2023	Arkansas State 14 @ South Alabama 21	USA -14	ARST W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ARST−9.7 →−13.8▼ 4.1#118

USA−2.3 →−7.8▼ 5.5#98

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

ARST

Longer bar = better

USA

#107

Offense

USA better ▶

#92

#129

Defense

USA better ▶

#111

+0.2 #62

Turnovers

◀ ARST better

−0.2 #90

72 plays #23

Pace

◀ ARST faster

70 plays #37

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ARST has the ball

Even matchup

	ARST off	USA def	Edge
Points / game	23.3 #98	31.7 #121	ARST
Yards / play	5.04 #115	5.72 #90	USA
PPA / play	+0.06 #107	+0.23 #124	Even
Success rate	40% #109	45% #107	Even

When USA has the ball

Advantage: USA offense

	USA off	ARST def	Edge
Points / game	25.0 #90	31.7 #120	USA
Yards / play	5.44 #90	7.14 #136	USA
PPA / play	+0.06 #104	+0.25 #129	USA
Success rate	42% #85	49% #132	USA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

ARST scoring against the USA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARST scored	5.2 #84	8.0 #82	13.2 #88	3.3 #121	6.8 #67	10.2 #105
USA allowed	7.0 #106	8.7 #97	15.7 #105	8.0 #118	6.8 #83	14.8 #118

USA scoring against the ARST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USA scored	6.3 #64	5.0 #115	11.3 #102	5.5 #79	8.2 #47	13.7 #60
ARST allowed	12.0 #135	5.8 #44	17.8 #121	4.7 #57	9.2 #128	13.8 #105

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.