Texas State @ Marshall: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2025)

Sat, Oct 18, 2025, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Marshall · Conference game

Weather at kickoff84°F9 mphgusts 21DryWeather watch ›

Texas State

3-3 · Power #71

final

Final

Marshall

3-3 · Power #88

▲ winner

Closing spread

TXST -2.5

✓ MRSH W

Total

65.5

▲ Over · 77 pts

Model before kickoff

TXST 32–30 MRSH

✗ TXST (57%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTXST -3.5

CloseTXST -2.5

Total65.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTXST -3.5

1 → MRSH

CloseTXST -2.5

1 pt toward Marshall

Total

Open65.5

no move

Close65.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TXST -3.5 · closed TXST -2.5 · moved 1 toward MRSHmodel TXST -2

model TXST -2

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 55%, covered 47% (207 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 44% (88 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTXST -3.5

CloseTXST -2.5

Total65.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TXST as a 2.5-point road favorite at MRSH, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: MRSH won 40–37 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 77 points went over 65.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 11 against an average line of 3.3; 62.6 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UTSA @ MTSU 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & rest	-4.5	45–30	W	O64
Very close	WAKE @ DUKE 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	31–34	L	U67.5
Very close	BOIS @ USU 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & season form	-5	45–10	W	U63.5
Very close	UTSA @ FAU 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	36–10	W	U58.5
Very close	NIU @ OHIO 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & rest	-2.5	17–24	L	U65.5
Very close	SMU @ TLSA 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & rest	-1	45–34	W	O63.5
Close	TXST @ USA 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	45–38	W	O61
Close	WKU @ LT 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & rest	-6	35–28	W	O59
Close	UCF @ CIN 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	28–26	L	U60
Close	CCU @ GAST 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar total & team ratings	-2.5	41–24	W	O63.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TXST WLLLL	2-4	33%	1-2	1-3
MRSH LWWLW	4-2	67%	2-1	2-0

Venue/role: TXST away, as favorite; MRSH home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TXST OUUUO	3-3	50%	3-3
MRSH UUOOO	4-2	67%	3-3

Went over in OT. Of 89 earlier overs in games with totals 61.5–69.5, 21% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TXST	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
MRSH	7-3 70%	8-2 80%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TXST+1.6 →−0.9▼ 2.5#71

MRSH−1.7 →−5.4▼ 3.7#83

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

TXST

Longer bar = better

MRSH

#22

Offense

◀ TXST better

#55

#107

Defense

MRSH better ▶

#91

−0.5 #111

Turnovers

MRSH better ▶

+1.0 #14

71 plays #27

Pace

◀ TXST faster

68 plays #53

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TXST has the ball

Advantage: TXST offense

	TXST off	MRSH def	Edge
Points / game	36.0 #30	29.8 #116	TXST
Yards / play	6.71 #22	6.05 #114	TXST
PPA / play	+0.32 #11	+0.12 #80	TXST
Success rate	49% #24	40% #52	TXST

When MRSH has the ball

Advantage: MRSH offense

	MRSH off	TXST def	Edge
Points / game	34.3 #38	29.8 #118	MRSH
Yards / play	5.55 #83	5.68 #87	Even
PPA / play	+0.21 #36	+0.23 #124	MRSH
Success rate	44% #62	44% #98	MRSH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

TXST scoring against the MRSH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TXST scored	10.2 #14	9.0 #68	19.2 #27	7.3 #50	9.5 #23	16.8 #27
MRSH allowed	6.3 #95	6.7 #57	13.0 #76	6.5 #102	8.2 #109	14.7 #114

MRSH scoring against the TXST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MRSH scored	8.0 #36	10.3 #40	18.3 #36	7.3 #50	7.0 #65	14.3 #54
TXST allowed	3.8 #42	9.7 #111	13.5 #80	6.3 #95	8.8 #122	15.2 #121

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.