Troy @ UL Monroe: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2025)

Sat, Oct 18, 2025, 3:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at UL Monroe · Conference game

Weather at kickoff88°F11 mphgusts 26DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Troy

4-2 · Power #99

▲ winner

Final

UL Monroe

3-3 · Power #130

final

Closing spread

TROY -5.5

✓ TROY W

Total

45.5

▲ Over · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

TROY 26–20 ULM

✓ TROY (66%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTROY -5.5

CloseTROY -5.5

Total46.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTROY -5.5

no move

CloseTROY -5.5

No change since the open

Total

Open46.5

▼ 1

Close45.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TROY -5.5 · unchangedmodel TROY -8

model TROY -8

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 49% (125 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTROY -5.5

CloseTROY -5.5

Total46.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TROY as a 5.5-point road favorite at ULM, the favorite won 5, covered 2, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: TROY won 37–14; the favorite covered, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 51 points went over 45.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 63%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 2 against an average line of 5.4; 53.8 points a game (usually 53). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	M-OH @ BGSU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7	13–17	L	U45
Very close	NIU @ AKR 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & situation	-4	55–14	W	O42.5
Very close	FRES @ SDSU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-5.5	18–33	L	O47.25
Very close	USM @ ULM 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3	20–10	W	U50
Very close	MTSU @ SHSU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	20–23	L	U50
Very close	FAU @ MTSU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-5.5	21–49	L	O51
Very close	TLSA @ NAVY 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & rest	-4.5	21–53	L	O45.75
Very close	BOIS @ SDSU 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & rest	-6.5	34–31	L	O46.5
Very close	SHSU @ FIU 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & rest	-5	10–7	L	U47
Very close	CONN @ MASS 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & total	-9.5	47–42	L	O49.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TROY WLWWW	5-1	83%	3-0	1-0
ULM LWWLL	2-4	33%	1-1	1-2

Venue/role: TROY away, as favorite; ULM home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TROY UUUOO	3-3	50%	4-2
ULM OOUOU	3-3	50%	3-3

Went over in Q4. Of 383 earlier overs in games with totals 41.5–49.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TROY	7-3 70%	8-2 80%	6-4 60%
ULM	3-7 30%	2-8 20%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

TROY 11–8 ULM TROY leads · 19 games since 1995 · TROY has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 28 2024	UL Monroe 13 @ Troy 9	TROY -6.5	ULM W
Nov 11 2023	Troy 45 @ UL Monroe 14	TROY -21.5	TROY W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TROY−7.1 →−5.9▲ 1.2#85

ULM−12.3 →−15.2▼ 2.9#122

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

TROY

Longer bar = better

ULM

#95

Offense

Even

#106

#83

Defense

Even

#82

−0.7 #119

Turnovers

ULM better ▶

−0.2 #88

68 plays #51

Pace

◀ TROY faster

58 plays #134

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TROY has the ball

Even matchup

	TROY off	ULM def	Edge
Points / game	26.8 #79	29.8 #117	TROY
Yards / play	5.08 #112	5.74 #94	Even
PPA / play	+0.12 #85	+0.11 #76	Even
Success rate	40% #104	39% #39	ULM

When ULM has the ball

Advantage: TROY defense

	ULM off	TROY def	Edge
Points / game	17.2 #126	26.2 #83	TROY
Yards / play	5.60 #81	5.73 #91	Even
PPA / play	+0.10 #90	+0.14 #93	Even
Success rate	37% #127	41% #65	TROY

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

TROY scoring against the ULM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TROY scored	3.5 #118	6.7 #104	10.2 #115	3.3 #122	11.0 #9	14.3 #53
ULM allowed	8.5 #122	7.0 #67	15.5 #104	7.3 #115	7.0 #83	14.3 #110

ULM scoring against the TROY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ULM scored	4.7 #98	4.5 #122	9.2 #122	4.8 #93	3.2 #126	8.0 #123
TROY allowed	8.2 #120	5.0 #24	13.2 #77	8.0 #119	5.0 #37	13.0 #94

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.