Purdue @ Northwestern: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2025)

Sat, Oct 18, 2025, 3:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Northwestern · Conference game

Weather at kickoff72°F7 mphgusts 17Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Purdue

2-4 · Power #79

final

Final

Northwestern

4-2 · Power #59

▲ winner

Closing spread

NU -3.5

✓ NU W

Total

46.5

▼ Under · 19 pts

Model before kickoff

PUR 22–26 NU

✓ NU (61%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNU -3.5

CloseNU -3.5

Total48.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNU -3.5

no move

CloseNU -3.5

No change since the open

Total

Open48.5

▼ 2

Close46.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NU -3.5 · unchangedmodel NU -5

model NU -5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 50% (253 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNU -3.5

CloseNU -3.5

Total48.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NU as a 3.5-point home favorite against PUR, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: NU won 19–0; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 19 points stayed under 46.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 5.1 against an average line of 2.7; 52.5 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WVU vs OKST 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	34–48	L	O48.5
Very close	USM vs GAST 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar season form & total	-2	14–42	L	O48
Very close	MSU vs RUTG 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar total & rest	-1.5	14–41	L	O46.5
Very close	M-OH vs OHIO 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	30–20	W	O43.5
Very close	SYR vs WAKE 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2	35–31	W	O43.5
Very close	NU vs PUR 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	23–15	W	U47.5
Very close	TOL vs BGSU 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & situation	-2	26–41	L	O48
Very close	PITT vs BC 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar team ratings & spread	-1.75	24–16	W	U46.75
Very close	CAL vs STAN 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-5	27–20	W	O46
Very close	ISU vs TTU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	10–14	L	U47.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PUR LWLLW	3-3	50%	1-1	2-2
NU WWLWW	4-2	67%	3-1	2-1

Venue/role: PUR away, as underdog; NU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PUR UUOOU	2-4	33%	2-4
NU OUUOU	2-4	33%	4-2

Stayed under: it needed 28 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 54% of games with totals 42.5–50.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PUR	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
NU	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

PUR 0–2 NU NU leads · 2 games since 2023 · NU has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 2 2024	Northwestern 26 @ Purdue 20	PUR -3.5	NU W
Nov 18 2023	Purdue 15 @ Northwestern 23	NU -2.5	NU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PUR−8.2 →−1.2▲ 7.0#72

NU−2.5 →+0.7▲ 3.2#64

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

PUR

Longer bar = better

#57

Offense

◀ PUR better

#79

#115

Defense

NU better ▶

#65

−1.7 #134

Turnovers

Even

−0.8 #126

71 plays #26

Pace

◀ PUR faster

65 plays #90

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PUR has the ball

Even matchup

	PUR off	NU def	Edge
Points / game	26.5 #80	17.7 #24	NU
Yards / play	5.77 #65	5.38 #61	Even
PPA / play	+0.17 #51	+0.15 #99	PUR
Success rate	47% #32	42% #77	PUR

When NU has the ball

Advantage: NU offense

	NU off	PUR def	Edge
Points / game	23.3 #98	29.3 #110	Even
Yards / play	5.59 #82	6.10 #117	NU
PPA / play	+0.10 #92	+0.24 #128	NU
Success rate	46% #44	44% #103	NU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

PUR scoring against the NU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PUR scored	8.2 #33	8.8 #72	17.0 #51	4.5 #96	5.0 #105	9.5 #111
NU allowed	3.5 #38	6.7 #56	10.2 #43	3.3 #28	4.2 #30	7.5 #17

NU scoring against the PUR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NU scored	5.2 #86	7.0 #93	12.2 #98	4.5 #96	6.7 #72	11.2 #92
PUR allowed	5.2 #68	12.5 #133	17.7 #120	7.8 #118	3.8 #21	11.7 #69

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.