Northwestern @ Nebraska: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2025)

Sat, Oct 25, 2025, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Nebraska · Conference game

Weather at kickoff53°F6 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Northwestern

5-2 · Power #59

final

Final

Nebraska

5-2 · Power #45

▲ winner

Closing spread

NEB -7.5

✓ NU W

Total

44.5

▲ Over · 49 pts

Model before kickoff

NU 18–26 NEB

✓ NEB (72%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNEB -9.5

CloseNEB -7.5

Total43.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNEB -9.5

2 → NU

CloseNEB -7.5

2 pts toward Northwestern

Total

Open43.5

▲ 1

Close44.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NEB -9.5 · closed NEB -7.5 · moved 2 toward NUmodel NEB -11.5

model NEB -11.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 73%, covered 57% (169 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 50% (176 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNEB -9.5

CloseNEB -7.5

Total43.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NEB as a 7.5-point home favorite against NU, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: NEB won 28–21; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 49 points went over 44.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 9.7 against an average line of 7.9; 47.7 points a game (usually 53.4). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LOU vs VT 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar season form & situation	-9.75	34–3	W	U48.5
Very close	KSU vs ISU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-9.5	35–42	L	O46.25
Close	TA&M vs FLA 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & spread	-7	34–17	W	O48
Close	IOWA vs NEB 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar situation & rest	-3	13–10	P	U41.5
Close	LSU vs SC 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & spread	-8.5	20–10	W	U44.5
Close	OKST vs USA 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & rest	-7	7–33	L	U49.25
Close	WISC vs ILL 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & spread	-6.5	10–34	L	O43.5
Close	TCU vs ISU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & season form	-9.5	62–14	W	O45.75
Close	ORST vs CAL 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-11.5	38–10	W	O47
Close	ISU vs CIN 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & rest	-7	34–17	W	U52.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NU WLWWW	5-2	71%	1-1	2-1
NEB WLLLL	2-5	29%	2-2	2-4

Venue/role: NU away, as underdog; NEB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NU UUOUU	2-5	29%	5-2
NEB OOOOU	5-2	71%	5-2

Went over in Q4. Of 362 earlier overs in games with totals 40.5–48.5, 36% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NU	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
NEB	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

NU 0–1 NEB NEB leads · 1 game since 2023 · NEB has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 21 2023	Northwestern 9 @ Nebraska 17	NEB -10.5	NU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NU−2.5 →+1.9▲ 4.4#62

NEB+8.3 →+9.5▲ 1.2#29

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

Longer bar = better

NEB

#84

Offense

NEB better ▶

#43

#53

Defense

NEB better ▶

#28

−0.6 #115

Turnovers

NEB better ▶

+0.4 #43

67 plays #68

Pace

◀ NU faster

65 plays #88

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NU has the ball

Advantage: NEB defense

	NU off	NEB def	Edge
Points / game	22.7 #101	19.4 #30	NEB
Yards / play	5.46 #90	4.69 #22	NEB
PPA / play	+0.08 #99	+0.02 #33	NEB
Success rate	45% #47	38% #28	Even

When NEB has the ball

Even matchup

	NEB off	NU def	Edge
Points / game	36.0 #29	15.1 #11	Even
Yards / play	6.36 #34	5.39 #60	NEB
PPA / play	+0.12 #83	+0.10 #70	Even
Success rate	48% #25	41% #70	NEB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

NU scoring against the NEB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NU scored	4.9 #96	7.4 #87	12.3 #97	4.7 #96	5.7 #86	10.4 #104
NEB allowed	1.9 #7	5.4 #29	7.3 #12	8.4 #123	3.7 #18	12.1 #81

NEB scoring against the NU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NEB scored	7.1 #49	13.6 #5	20.7 #16	6.0 #70	9.3 #26	15.3 #41
NU allowed	3.0 #26	5.7 #37	8.7 #23	2.9 #19	3.6 #17	6.4 #11

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.