USC @ Nebraska: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2025)

Sat, Nov 1, 2025, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Nebraska · Conference game

Weather at kickoff42°F1 mphDryWeather watch ›

USC

5-2 · Power #12

▲ winner

Final

Nebraska

6-2 · Power #45

final

Closing spread

USC -4.5

✓ NEB W

Total

58.5

▼ Under · 38 pts

Model before kickoff

USC 32–28 NEB

✓ USC (64%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSC -6.5

CloseUSC -4.5

Total58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUSC -6.5

2 → NEB

CloseUSC -4.5

2 pts toward Nebraska

Total

Open58.5

no move

Close58.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened USC -6.5 · closed USC -4.5 · moved 2 toward NEBmodel USC -6

model USC -6

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 51% (135 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 50% (187 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSC -6.5

CloseUSC -4.5

Total58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like USC as a 4.5-point road favorite at NEB, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: USC won 21–17; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 38 points stayed under 58.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.8 against an average line of 4.3; 58.2 points a game (usually 53). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CLEM @ VT 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-5.5	24–14	W	U54.5
Very close	OU @ OKST 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & spread	-6	24–27	L	U62.5
Very close	MIA @ LOU 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-4.5	52–45	W	O61
Close	TCU @ BAY 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar season form & total	-2	29–28	L	U58
Close	ORST @ ARIZ 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar total & spread	-3	24–27	L	U57.5
Close	LSU @ MIZ 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & situation	-6	49–39	W	O63.5
Close	TENN @ MIZ 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar total & situation	-2	7–36	L	U58.75
Close	ALA @ LSU 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar total & season form	-2.5	42–13	W	U58.5
Close	USC @ MD 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar total & situation	-6.5	28–29	L	O56
Close	TENN @ FLA 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & total	-5	16–29	L	U56.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USC LLLWW	4-3	57%	1-2	3-3
NEB LLLLL	2-6	25%	2-3	0-1

Venue/role: USC away, as favorite; NEB home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USC UOOUU	4-3	57%	5-2
NEB OOOUO	6-2	75%	6-2

Stayed under: it needed 31 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 49% of games with totals 54.5–62.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USC	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
NEB	7-3 70%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

USC 1–0 NEB USC leads · 1 game since 2023 · USC has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 16 2024	Nebraska 20 @ USC 28	USC -6.5	USC W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USC+14.0 →+18.6▲ 4.6#11

NEB+8.3 →+9.1▲ 0.8#31

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

USC

Longer bar = better

NEB

Offense

◀ USC better

#42

#72

Defense

NEB better ▶

#27

+0.3 #53

Turnovers

Even

+0.4 #48

67 plays #60

Pace

◀ USC faster

65 plays #94

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USC has the ball

Advantage: USC offense

	USC off	NEB def	Edge
Points / game	42.4 #5	19.6 #32	USC
Yards / play	7.89 #1	4.80 #22	USC
PPA / play	+0.38 #2	+0.01 #27	USC
Success rate	55% #1	38% #28	USC

When NEB has the ball

Advantage: NEB offense

	NEB off	USC def	Edge
Points / game	35.0 #29	23.1 #57	NEB
Yards / play	6.18 #38	5.73 #88	NEB
PPA / play	+0.12 #79	+0.05 #47	USC
Success rate	48% #21	44% #96	NEB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

USC scoring against the NEB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USC scored	10.3 #9	11.3 #27	21.6 #10	10.4 #7	10.4 #6	20.9 #4
NEB allowed	2.0 #7	5.1 #24	7.1 #11	8.3 #124	4.3 #24	12.5 #82

NEB scoring against the USC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NEB scored	7.1 #48	11.9 #19	19.0 #25	7.0 #44	9.0 #26	16.0 #31
USC allowed	4.3 #44	5.9 #38	10.1 #41	7.7 #116	5.3 #45	13.0 #88

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.