Rutgers @ Illinois: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2025)

Sat, Nov 1, 2025, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Illinois · Conference game

Weather at kickoff47°F6 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

Rutgers

4-4 · Power #62

final

Final

Illinois

5-3 · Power #30

▲ winner

Closing spread

ILL -12.5

✓ ILL W

Total

63.5

▼ Under · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

RUTG 25–37 ILL

✓ ILL (81%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenILL -13.5

CloseILL -12.5

Total62.5 → 63.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenILL -13.5

1 → RUTG

CloseILL -12.5

1 pt toward Rutgers

Total

Open62.5

▲ 1

Close63.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ILL -13.5 · closed ILL -12.5 · moved 1 toward RUTGmodel ILL -10.5

model ILL -10.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 11.5–13.5 since 2023: won 82%, covered 53% (95 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 48% (258 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenILL -13.5

CloseILL -12.5

Total62.5 → 63.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ILL as a 12.5-point home favorite against RUTG, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: ILL won 35–13; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 48 points stayed under 63.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 78%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 18.7 against an average line of 11.7; 60.3 points a game (usually 53.8). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TCU vs OKST 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-10.5	38–13	W	U68.5
Very close	UNC vs WAKE 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & total	-10.5	31–24	L	U64.5
Very close	HOU vs TLSA 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & season form	-13	30–37	L	P67
Very close	TCU vs ARIZ 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & spread	-10.5	49–28	W	O60
Close	COLO vs OKST 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar situation & rest	-15	52–0	W	U66.5
Close	NCSU vs VT 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-10	21–23	L	U57.5
Close	WAKE vs SYR 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & rest	-9.5	45–35	W	O58.5
Close	UTSA vs USF 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & season form	-14.5	49–21	W	O66.5
Close	CLEM vs GT 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-15.5	42–21	W	O55
Close	FLA vs SC 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-8	38–6	W	U58

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
RUTG LWLLW	4-4	50%	2-1	2-3
ILL LWWLL	5-3	63%	3-1	4-0

Venue/role: RUTG away, as underdog; ILL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
RUTG OOUOU	6-2	75%	4-4
ILL OOOUO	5-3	63%	5-3

Stayed under: it needed 23 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 43% of games with totals 59.5–67.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
RUTG	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	8-2 80%
ILL	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

RUTG 0–1 ILL ILL leads · 1 game since 2023 · ILL has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 23 2024	Illinois 38 @ Rutgers 31	RUTG -2.5	ILL W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

RUTG+3.4 →+1.6▼ 1.8#61

ILL+4.1 →+8.1▲ 4.0#37

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

RUTG

Longer bar = better

ILL

#45

Offense

Even

#41

#127

Defense

ILL better ▶

#110

+0.1 #65

Turnovers

Even

+0.3 #59

73 plays #18

Pace

◀ RUTG faster

62 plays #121

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When RUTG has the ball

Advantage: RUTG offense

	RUTG off	ILL def	Edge
Points / game	31.4 #51	27.5 #92	RUTG
Yards / play	5.83 #63	5.74 #91	RUTG
PPA / play	+0.20 #38	+0.25 #128	RUTG
Success rate	47% #27	48% #130	RUTG

When ILL has the ball

Advantage: ILL offense

	ILL off	RUTG def	Edge
Points / game	32.9 #44	30.6 #113	ILL
Yards / play	6.05 #50	7.69 #136	ILL
PPA / play	+0.19 #43	+0.26 #130	ILL
Success rate	48% #25	47% #129	ILL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

RUTG scoring against the ILL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
RUTG scored	7.6 #42	10.6 #36	18.3 #35	5.0 #87	8.1 #45	13.1 #67
ILL allowed	6.9 #101	7.3 #74	14.1 #87	6.0 #83	7.4 #88	13.4 #97

ILL scoring against the RUTG defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ILL scored	5.1 #86	10.6 #36	15.8 #59	8.1 #28	9.0 #28	17.1 #23
RUTG allowed	6.5 #96	9.4 #109	15.9 #106	10.0 #131	4.8 #32	14.8 #114

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.