Rutgers @ Purdue: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2025)

Sat, Oct 25, 2025, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Purdue · Conference game

Weather at kickoff46°F4 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

Rutgers

3-4 · Power #62

▲ winner

Final

Purdue

2-5 · Power #79

final

Closing spread

PUR -2.5

✓ RUTG W

Total

60.5

▼ Under · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

RUTG 29–31 PUR

✗ PUR (56%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenRUTG -2.5

ClosePUR -2.5

Total57.5 → 60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenRUTG -2.5

5 → PUR

ClosePUR -2.5

5 pts toward Purdue

Total

Open57.5

▲ 3

Close60.5

Up 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened RUTG -2.5 · closed PUR -2.5 · moved 5 toward PURmodel Pick’em

model Pick’em

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 51% (264 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 43% (137 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenRUTG -2.5

ClosePUR -2.5

Total57.5 → 60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PUR as a 2.5-point home favorite against RUTG, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: RUTG won 27–24 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 51 points stayed under 60.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 4 against an average line of 3.9; 64.8 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	ECU vs MEM 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & rest	-5.5	47–45	L	O62.5
Close	CAL vs WSU 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar season form & rest	-1.5	42–39	W	O59
Close	GAST vs APP 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & total	-2.5	14–42	L	U62.5
Close	PUR vs IU 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	35–31	L	O55.5
Close	CSU vs SJSU 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	31–24	W	U55.5
Close	BAY vs OKST 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & rest	-7	38–28	W	O64.5
Close	CLT vs USF 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & situation	-1.5	24–59	L	O53.5
Close	CONN vs USF 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar season form & spread	-1	21–24	L	U57
Close	NEB vs IU 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar situation	-6.5	35–21	W	U61.75
Close	MD vs RUTG 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & season form	-4.5	17–31	L	U54.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
RUTG WLWLL	3-4	43%	1-1	1-3
PUR WLLWL	3-4	43%	2-2	1-1

Venue/role: RUTG away, as underdog; PUR home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
RUTG OOOUO	6-1	86%	3-4
PUR UOOUU	2-5	29%	2-5

Stayed under: it needed 30 in the 4th quarter and got 20. 46% of games with totals 56.5–64.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
RUTG	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	9-1 90%
PUR	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

RUTG+3.4 →+1.0▼ 2.4#64

PUR−8.2 →−1.6▲ 6.6#72

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

RUTG

Longer bar = better

PUR

#50

Offense

◀ RUTG better

#71

#130

Defense

PUR better ▶

#103

+0.1 #67

Turnovers

◀ RUTG better

−1.6 #135

73 plays #20

Pace

◀ RUTG faster

69 plays #39

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When RUTG has the ball

Advantage: RUTG offense

	RUTG off	PUR def	Edge
Points / game	32.0 #49	27.9 #97	RUTG
Yards / play	5.62 #79	5.87 #105	RUTG
PPA / play	+0.20 #43	+0.20 #114	RUTG
Success rate	47% #28	44% #96	RUTG

When PUR has the ball

Advantage: PUR offense

	PUR off	RUTG def	Edge
Points / game	22.7 #100	31.6 #121	PUR
Yards / play	5.73 #68	7.81 #137	PUR
PPA / play	+0.12 #81	+0.28 #131	PUR
Success rate	46% #35	49% #132	PUR

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

RUTG scoring against the PUR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
RUTG scored	8.7 #23	11.1 #31	19.9 #21	4.7 #96	7.4 #63	12.1 #83
PUR allowed	4.9 #62	12.1 #132	17.0 #119	7.6 #115	3.3 #10	10.9 #56

PUR scoring against the RUTG defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PUR scored	7.0 #50	7.6 #85	14.6 #73	3.9 #113	4.3 #114	8.1 #124
RUTG allowed	6.0 #88	10.7 #120	16.7 #116	10.4 #131	4.4 #28	14.9 #118

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.