Purdue @ Michigan: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2025)

Sat, Nov 1, 2025, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Michigan · Conference game

Weather at kickoff47°F7 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

Purdue

2-6 · Power #79

final

Final

Michigan

6-2 · Power #21

▲ winner

Closing spread

MICH -22.5

✓ PUR W

Total

48.5

▼ Under · 37 pts

Model before kickoff

PUR 13–36 MICH

✓ MICH (94%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMICH -21.5

CloseMICH -22.5

Total50.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMICH -21.5

1 → MICH

CloseMICH -22.5

1 pt toward Michigan

Total

Open50.5

▼ 2

Close48.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MICH -21.5 · closed MICH -22.5 · moved 1 toward MICHmodel MICH -21.5

model MICH -21.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 21.5–23.5 since 2023: won 95%, covered 46% (74 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (225 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMICH -21.5

CloseMICH -22.5

Total50.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MICH as a 22.5-point home favorite against PUR, the favorite won 9, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: MICH won 21–16; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 37 points stayed under 48.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 91%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 19.9 against an average line of 22.2; 51.5 points a game (usually 54.3). Of the 6 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ORST vs STAN 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-21.5	62–17	W	O52.5
Very close	LOU vs UVA 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & total	-20	31–24	L	O49.5
Very close	PITT vs GT 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-21.5	21–26	L	P47
Very close	TEX vs BYU 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & total	-20.5	35–6	W	U49.5
Very close	PSU vs NU 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & total	-25.5	17–7	L	U50
Very close	PSU vs MD 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & situation	-26	44–7	W	O50.5
Very close	LOU vs BC 2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & season form	-25.5	38–24	L	O54.5
Very close	MIA vs UVA 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & rest	-18.5	29–26	L	O48
Very close	FLA vs VAN 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & total	-18.5	38–14	W	O51
Very close	UTAH vs STAN 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-24	42–7	W	U54

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PUR LLWLL	3-5	38%	1-2	2-3
MICH WLLWL	3-5	38%	2-2	3-3

Venue/role: PUR away, as underdog; MICH home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PUR OOUUU	2-6	25%	2-6
MICH OUUUO	4-4	50%	6-2

Stayed under: it needed 25 in the 4th quarter and got 13. 53% of games with totals 44.5–52.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PUR	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%
MICH	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

PUR 0–1 MICH MICH leads · 1 game since 2023 · MICH has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 4 2023	Purdue 13 @ Michigan 41	MICH -31	PUR W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PUR−8.2 →−2.4▲ 5.8#77

MICH+12.2 →+14.9▲ 2.7#17

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

PUR

Longer bar = better

MICH

#70

Offense

MICH better ▶

#49

#107

Defense

MICH better ▶

#41

−1.4 #134

Turnovers

MICH better ▶

+1.1 #7

67 plays #69

Pace

◀ PUR faster

64 plays #110

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PUR has the ball

Advantage: MICH defense

	PUR off	MICH def	Edge
Points / game	22.9 #101	17.4 #19	MICH
Yards / play	5.83 #62	4.67 #19	MICH
PPA / play	+0.12 #75	+0.03 #37	MICH
Success rate	45% #42	43% #90	PUR

When MICH has the ball

Advantage: MICH offense

	MICH off	PUR def	Edge
Points / game	29.0 #66	27.8 #94	MICH
Yards / play	6.47 #26	6.07 #111	MICH
PPA / play	+0.18 #45	+0.20 #116	MICH
Success rate	44% #57	45% #106	MICH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

PUR scoring against the MICH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PUR scored	7.4 #40	6.6 #100	14.0 #77	4.3 #109	4.6 #115	8.9 #119
MICH allowed	2.6 #15	7.3 #74	9.9 #38	2.6 #16	4.9 #37	7.5 #13

MICH scoring against the PUR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MICH scored	7.8 #30	6.0 #109	13.8 #80	8.5 #25	6.8 #72	15.3 #40
PUR allowed	4.3 #44	11.5 #129	15.8 #102	7.5 #114	4.5 #27	12.0 #73

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.