Ohio State @ Purdue: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2025)

Sat, Nov 8, 2025, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Purdue · Conference game

Weather at kickoff51°F4 mphgusts 11Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Ohio State

8-0 · Power #2

▲ winner

Final

Purdue

2-7 · Power #79

final

Closing spread

OSU -30.5

✓ PUR W

Total

49.5

▼ Under · 44 pts

Model before kickoff

OSU 40–9 PUR

✓ OSU (98%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenOSU -26.5

CloseOSU -30.5

Total47.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenOSU -26.5

4 → OSU

CloseOSU -30.5

4 pts toward Ohio State

Total

Open47.5

▲ 2

Close49.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened OSU -26.5 · closed OSU -30.5 · moved 4 toward OSUmodel OSU -29.5

model OSU -29.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 43% (142 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenOSU -26.5

CloseOSU -30.5

Total47.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like OSU as a 30.5-point road favorite at PUR, the favorite won 10, covered 6, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: OSU won 34–10; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 44 points stayed under 49.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 99%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 59%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 53%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 27.7 against an average line of 28.2; 58.7 points a game (usually 56). Of the 6 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	UGA @ MIZ 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-30.75	26–22	L	U54.25
Close	PSU @ NU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & season form	-27	41–13	W	O46
Close	PSU @ PUR 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-30	49–10	W	O51.5
Loose	ND @ BC 2025 · Week 10 · loose · similar spread	-31	25–10	L	U55.5
Loose	UGA @ VAN 2023 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & situation	-32.5	37–20	L	O55
Loose	MICH @ MSU 2023 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & season form	-25.5	49–0	W	O46.5
Loose	MICH @ RUTG 2022 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest & season form	-26.5	52–17	W	O45
Loose	ND @ STAN 2023 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & situation	-26	56–23	W	O50
Loose	OU @ TLSA 2023 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest	-28	66–17	W	O58.75
Loose	UGA @ GT 2023 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & situation	-24.5	31–23	L	U59.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
OSU WWWWW	7-1	88%	3-0	7-1
PUR LWLLW	4-5	44%	2-3	3-3

Venue/role: OSU away, as favorite; PUR home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
OSU UOUUO	3-5	38%	8-0
PUR OUUUU	2-7	22%	2-7

Stayed under: it needed 23 in the 4th quarter and got 17. 54% of games with totals 45.5–53.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OSU	10-0 100%	9-1 90%	4-6 40%
PUR	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

OSU 2–0 PUR OSU leads · 2 games since 2023 · OSU has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 9 2024	Purdue 0 @ Ohio State 45	OSU -37.5	OSU W
Oct 14 2023	Ohio State 41 @ Purdue 7	OSU -17.5	OSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

OSU+26.4 →+27.6▲ 1.2#1

PUR−8.2 →−1.6▲ 6.6#73

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

OSU

Longer bar = better

PUR

Offense

◀ OSU better

#77

Defense

◀ OSU better

#107

+0.6 #26

Turnovers

◀ OSU better

−1.1 #134

62 plays #126

Pace

PUR faster ▶

67 plays #66

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When OSU has the ball

Advantage: OSU offense

	OSU off	PUR def	Edge
Points / game	36.6 #17	27.0 #89	OSU
Yards / play	7.11 #11	6.12 #112	OSU
PPA / play	+0.35 #3	+0.19 #116	OSU
Success rate	54% #2	45% #112	OSU

When PUR has the ball

Advantage: OSU defense

	PUR off	OSU def	Edge
Points / game	22.1 #109	6.9 #1	OSU
Yards / play	5.66 #72	3.75 #1	OSU
PPA / play	+0.09 #86	−0.15 #3	OSU
Success rate	45% #41	35% #11	OSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

OSU scoring against the PUR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OSU scored	8.1 #25	9.0 #63	17.1 #42	9.5 #10	10.0 #10	19.5 #6
PUR allowed	4.6 #46	11.0 #126	15.6 #102	6.7 #102	4.8 #33	11.4 #61

PUR scoring against the OSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PUR scored	6.6 #60	6.7 #99	13.2 #84	4.1 #108	4.8 #112	8.9 #120
OSU allowed	0.4 #1	2.9 #5	3.3 #1	2.0 #8	1.6 #1	3.6 #1

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.