Nebraska @ UCLA: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2025)

Sat, Nov 8, 2025, 9:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at UCLA · Conference game

Weather at kickoff69°F1 mphDryWeather watch ›

Nebraska

6-3 · Power #45

▲ winner

Final

UCLA

3-5 · Power #70

final

Closing spread

UCLA -2.5

✓ NEB W

Total

45.5

▲ Over · 49 pts

Model before kickoff

NEB 24–25 UCLA

✗ UCLA (52%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUCLA -2.5

CloseUCLA -2.5

Total43.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUCLA -2.5

no move

CloseUCLA -2.5

No change since the open

Total

Open43.5

▲ 2

Close45.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UCLA -2.5 · unchangedmodel NEB -6.5

model NEB -6.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 51% (292 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUCLA -2.5

CloseUCLA -2.5

Total43.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UCLA as a 2.5-point home favorite against NEB, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 3 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: NEB won 28–21 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 49 points went over 45.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 4.1 against an average line of 2.9; 46.3 points a game (usually 53). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	VT vs SYR 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	38–10	W	O47
Close	NCSU vs DUKE 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & situation	-3	19–29	L	U51.5
Close	BC vs PITT 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	34–23	W	O50.5
Close	UK vs LOU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	26–13	W	U42.5
Close	WYO vs APP 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar total & spread	-3	22–19	P	U45
Close	UK vs AUB 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & situation	-2	10–24	L	U43.5
Close	RUTG vs IU 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	24–17	W	U48
Close	UCLA vs MD 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar season form & situation	-4	20–17	L	U52.5
Close	UVA vs BC 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-2	24–14	W	U52.5
Close	FLA vs LSU 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & situation	-2	35–45	L	O51.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NEB LLLLW	3-6	33%	0-2	1-1
UCLA WWWLL	3-5	38%	1-3	0-3

Venue/role: NEB away, as underdog; UCLA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NEB OOUOU	6-3	67%	6-3
UCLA UOUUO	3-5	38%	3-5

Went over in Q4. Of 419 earlier overs in games with totals 41.5–49.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NEB	7-3 70%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
UCLA	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

NEB 8–7 UCLA NEB leads · 15 games since 1946 · NEB has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 2 2024	UCLA 27 @ Nebraska 20	NEB -8.5	UCLA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NEB+8.3 →+9.0▲ 0.7#30

UCLA+5.3 →−0.2▼ 5.5#66

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

NEB

Longer bar = better

UCLA

#45

Offense

◀ NEB better

#85

#29

Defense

◀ NEB better

#112

+0.3 #41

Turnovers

◀ NEB better

−0.3 #94

65 plays #99

Pace

◀ NEB faster

63 plays #119

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NEB has the ball

Advantage: NEB offense

	NEB off	UCLA def	Edge
Points / game	33.0 #34	31.0 #113	NEB
Yards / play	6.02 #49	5.79 #94	NEB
PPA / play	+0.10 #74	+0.17 #105	NEB
Success rate	48% #24	49% #134	NEB

When UCLA has the ball

Advantage: NEB defense

	UCLA off	NEB def	Edge
Points / game	20.4 #117	19.8 #23	NEB
Yards / play	5.48 #88	4.89 #24	NEB
PPA / play	+0.10 #77	+0.02 #34	NEB
Success rate	44% #56	39% #36	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

NEB scoring against the UCLA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NEB scored	7.1 #46	11.3 #21	18.4 #28	6.2 #62	8.3 #36	14.6 #44
UCLA allowed	7.6 #113	8.5 #91	16.1 #106	5.3 #67	9.6 #130	14.9 #117

UCLA scoring against the NEB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UCLA scored	2.5 #131	7.6 #83	10.1 #116	5.4 #83	4.9 #114	10.3 #106
NEB allowed	1.8 #3	5.2 #20	7.0 #11	8.2 #124	4.6 #27	12.8 #86

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.