Nevada @ Utah State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2025)

Sat, Nov 8, 2025, 7:30 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Utah State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff40°F1 mphDryWeather watch ›

Nevada

1-7 · Power #121

final

Final

Utah State

4-4 · Power #86

▲ winner

Closing spread

USU -9.5

✓ USU W

Total

52.5

▲ Over · 65 pts

Model before kickoff

NEV 22–32 USU

✓ USU (76%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSU -11.5

CloseUSU -9.5

Total53.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUSU -11.5

2 → NEV

CloseUSU -9.5

2 pts toward Nevada

Total

Open53.5

▼ 1

Close52.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened USU -11.5 · closed USU -9.5 · moved 2 toward NEVmodel USU -12

model USU -12

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 8.5–10.5 since 2023: won 77%, covered 43% (134 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (193 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSU -11.5

CloseUSU -9.5

Total53.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like USU as a 9.5-point home favorite against NEV, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: USU won 51–14; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 65 points went over 52.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 74%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.6 against an average line of 8.9; 53.8 points a game (usually 54). Of the 3 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CSU vs WYO 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & spread	-8.5	24–10	W	U47
Very close	GASO vs TROY 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & rest	-7	20–28	L	U53.5
Very close	WKU vs NMSU 2025 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & total	-7.5	35–16	W	U53.5
Very close	MTSU vs FIU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & situation	-10.5	40–6	W	U51
Very close	DEL vs MTSU 2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & season form	-8.5	31–28	L	O55.5
Close	NIU vs AKR 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar total & season form	-9.5	12–44	L	O52
Close	WKU vs SHSU 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & spread	-11	28–23	L	U52.25
Close	MTSU vs UTEP 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & season form	-8	34–30	L	O48.5
Close	WKU vs NEV 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar team ratings & total	-7.5	31–16	W	U54.5
Close	APP vs CCU 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & season form	-10.5	37–45	L	O48

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NEV LWLWL	3-5	38%	3-1	3-3
USU WWLWL	6-2	75%	4-0	3-1

Venue/role: NEV away, as underdog; USU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NEV UUOUU	2-6	25%	1-7
USU UOOUU	4-4	50%	4-4

Went over in Q3. Of 585 earlier overs in games with totals 48.5–56.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NEV	1-9 10%	3-7 30%	2-8 20%
USU	5-5 50%	8-2 80%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

NEV 0–1 USU USU leads · 1 game since 2023 · USU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 11 2023	Nevada 24 @ Utah State 41	USU -15	USU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NEV−9.7 →−15.7▼ 6.0#126

USU−10.4 →−7.8▲ 2.6#96

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

NEV

Longer bar = better

USU

#131

Offense

USU better ▶

#48

#88

Defense

◀ NEV better

#120

−1.6 #137

Turnovers

USU better ▶

+0.1 #60

60 plays #131

Pace

USU faster ▶

63 plays #114

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NEV has the ball

Even matchup

	NEV off	USU def	Edge
Points / game	14.0 #134	31.8 #119	Even
Yards / play	4.89 #124	6.00 #107	Even
PPA / play	−0.11 #136	+0.21 #123	Even
Success rate	35% #131	47% #129	Even

When USU has the ball

Advantage: USU offense

	USU off	NEV def	Edge
Points / game	31.5 #50	27.5 #93	USU
Yards / play	6.54 #24	5.49 #68	USU
PPA / play	+0.20 #37	+0.13 #89	USU
Success rate	42% #81	44% #103	USU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

NEV scoring against the USU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NEV scored	1.5 #134	5.6 #113	7.1 #133	2.1 #134	4.8 #116	6.9 #133
USU allowed	5.5 #68	12.9 #136	18.4 #127	5.4 #72	8.0 #108	13.4 #95

USU scoring against the NEV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USU scored	6.6 #56	9.9 #49	16.5 #49	8.9 #17	6.1 #82	15.0 #41
NEV allowed	5.5 #68	10.3 #115	15.8 #102	5.6 #76	6.1 #64	11.8 #65

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.