Utah State @ UNLV: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2025)

Sat, Nov 15, 2025, 7:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at UNLV · Conference game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Utah State

5-4 · Power #86

final

Final

UNLV

7-2 · Power #74

▲ winner

Closing spread

UNLV -4.5

✓ USU W

Total

68.5

▼ Under · 55 pts

Model before kickoff

USU 31–36 UNLV

✓ UNLV (64%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUNLV -5.5

CloseUNLV -4.5

Total69.5 → 68.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUNLV -5.5

1 → USU

CloseUNLV -4.5

1 pt toward Utah State

Total

Open69.5

▼ 1

Close68.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UNLV -5.5 · closed UNLV -4.5 · moved 1 toward USUmodel UNLV -7

model UNLV -7

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 51% (214 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 48% (287 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUNLV -5.5

CloseUNLV -4.5

Total69.5 → 68.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UNLV as a 4.5-point home favorite against USU, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: UNLV won 29–26; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 55 points stayed under 68.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.1 against an average line of 4.8; 65.3 points a game (usually 53). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UNLV vs UNM 2025 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & season form	-3.5	35–40	L	O61.5
Very close	UNT vs ECU 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar season form & spread	-2.5	28–40	L	U73.5
Very close	ECU vs HOU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & total	-6	3–42	L	U66.5
Very close	GASO vs ODU 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-5.5	17–20	L	U61.5
Very close	MEM vs TLSA 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-6.5	26–10	W	U62.5
Very close	SJSU vs USU 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4	42–21	W	U65
Very close	UNT vs TLSA 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-7	52–20	W	O65.5
Very close	TTU vs KU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	43–28	W	O63.5
Close	UNLV vs AFA 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-7	51–48	L	O65.5
Close	UNT vs UAB 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	45–42	W	O73

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USU WLWLW	7-2	78%	2-2	3-1
UNLV WLLLW	5-4	56%	1-3	4-3

Venue/role: USU away, as underdog; UNLV home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USU OOUUO	5-4	56%	5-4
UNLV UOOOU	5-4	56%	7-2

Stayed under: it needed 36 in the 4th quarter and got 22. 44% of games with totals 64.5–72.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USU	5-5 50%	8-2 80%	6-4 60%
UNLV	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

USU 0–1 UNLV UNLV leads · 1 game since 2023 · UNLV has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 11 2024	UNLV 50 @ Utah State 34	UNLV -18.5	USU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USU−10.4 →−5.6▲ 4.8#89

UNLV+5.4 →−2.2▼ 7.6#74

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

USU

Longer bar = better

UNLV

#37

Offense

UNLV better ▶

#19

#111

Defense

Even

#118

+0.4 #32

Turnovers

UNLV better ▶

+0.9 #14

64 plays #101

Pace

UNLV faster ▶

66 plays #77

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USU has the ball

Advantage: USU offense

	USU off	UNLV def	Edge
Points / game	33.7 #27	31.6 #120	USU
Yards / play	6.60 #22	6.73 #134	USU
PPA / play	+0.22 #27	+0.16 #104	USU
Success rate	43% #70	45% #112	USU

When UNLV has the ball

Advantage: UNLV offense

	UNLV off	USU def	Edge
Points / game	37.4 #12	29.8 #109	UNLV
Yards / play	7.03 #10	5.85 #97	UNLV
PPA / play	+0.24 #24	+0.19 #117	UNLV
Success rate	46% #29	46% #122	UNLV

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

USU scoring against the UNLV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USU scored	8.6 #18	10.7 #27	19.2 #21	8.7 #18	5.8 #90	14.4 #48
UNLV allowed	7.7 #115	8.3 #92	16.0 #107	7.7 #117	7.9 #108	15.6 #126

UNLV scoring against the USU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNLV scored	5.7 #77	13.7 #4	19.3 #19	7.6 #33	10.6 #5	18.1 #13
USU allowed	4.9 #56	11.4 #133	16.3 #111	5.6 #75	7.9 #108	13.4 #97

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.