Colorado State @ New Mexico: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2025)

Sat, Nov 15, 2025, 3:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at New Mexico · Conference game

Weather at kickoff69°F1 mphgusts 8DryWeather watch ›

Colorado State

2-7 · Power #116

final

Final

New Mexico

6-3 · Power #81

▲ winner

Closing spread

UNM -15.5

✓ CSU W

Total

53.5

▼ Under · 37 pts

Model before kickoff

CSU 20–35 UNM

✓ UNM (85%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUNM -14.5

CloseUNM -15.5

Total53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUNM -14.5

1 → UNM

CloseUNM -15.5

1 pt toward New Mexico

Total

Open53.5

no move

Close53.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UNM -14.5 · closed UNM -15.5 · moved 1 toward UNMmodel UNM -11.5

model UNM -11.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 14.5–16.5 since 2023: won 88%, covered 46% (105 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 49% (243 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUNM -14.5

CloseUNM -15.5

Total53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UNM as a 15.5-point home favorite against CSU, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: UNM won 20–17; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 37 points stayed under 53.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 84%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 16.2 against an average line of 15.4; 55.8 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TOL vs CMU 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & spread	-15	37–10	W	U52
Very close	TOL vs BALL 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar team ratings & spread	-13.5	28–21	L	U53.5
Very close	SJSU vs SDSU 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & season form	-16.5	24–13	L	U48.5
Very close	UL vs ULM 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & total	-12.5	52–21	W	O53.25
Very close	UNT vs RICE 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-14.5	21–17	L	U57.25
Very close	UTSA vs TEM 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & spread	-16.5	51–27	W	O56
Close	USA vs USM 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar season form & situation	-18.5	55–3	W	O51
Close	WKU vs UTEP 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar total & rest	-19	44–17	W	O55.5
Close	USA vs CCU 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar total & team ratings	-14.5	20–38	L	O51.5
Close	GAST vs ULM 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar team ratings & spread	-13.5	28–31	L	U59.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CSU LWLLL	3-6	33%	1-2	3-3
UNM LLLWW	5-4	56%	2-2	2-2

Venue/role: CSU away, as underdog; UNM home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CSU OOUUU	3-6	33%	2-7
UNM OOUUO	5-4	56%	6-3

Stayed under: it needed 34 in the 4th quarter and got 17. 51% of games with totals 49.5–57.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CSU	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%
UNM	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

CSU 1–0 UNM CSU leads · 1 game since 2023 · CSU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 26 2024	New Mexico 6 @ Colorado State 17	CSU -3.5	CSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CSU−6.9 →−12.6▼ 5.7#115

UNM−13.7 →−4.4▲ 9.3#82

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

CSU

Longer bar = better

UNM

#106

Offense

UNM better ▶

#52

#106

Defense

UNM better ▶

#82

−0.1 #84

Turnovers

◀ CSU better

−1.0 #133

64 plays #105

Pace

Even

64 plays #107

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CSU has the ball

Advantage: UNM defense

	CSU off	UNM def	Edge
Points / game	18.1 #126	25.9 #82	UNM
Yards / play	5.07 #112	5.73 #91	UNM
PPA / play	+0.06 #99	+0.12 #86	Even
Success rate	41% #88	41% #67	UNM

When UNM has the ball

Advantage: UNM offense

	UNM off	CSU def	Edge
Points / game	30.2 #54	28.8 #97	UNM
Yards / play	6.11 #39	6.42 #128	UNM
PPA / play	+0.15 #53	+0.17 #106	UNM
Success rate	43% #63	44% #94	UNM

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

CSU scoring against the UNM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CSU scored	4.2 #107	4.9 #121	9.1 #121	2.3 #133	6.7 #68	9.0 #120
UNM allowed	4.6 #50	10.6 #118	15.1 #99	4.8 #48	6.0 #57	10.8 #48

UNM scoring against the CSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNM scored	4.7 #98	12.4 #9	17.1 #42	4.0 #113	9.1 #24	13.1 #59
CSU allowed	5.0 #57	11.9 #135	16.9 #120	7.7 #118	4.2 #19	11.9 #65

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.