San José State @ Nevada: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2025)

Sat, Nov 15, 2025, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Nevada · Conference game

Weather at kickoff60°F8 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

San José State

3-6 · Power #106

final

Final

Nevada

1-8 · Power #121

▲ winner

Closing spread

SJSU -9.5

✓ NEV W

Total

49.5

▲ Over · 65 pts

Model before kickoff

SJSU 31–21 NEV

✗ SJSU (74%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSJSU -8.5

CloseSJSU -9.5

Total52.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSJSU -8.5

1 → SJSU

CloseSJSU -9.5

1 pt toward San José State

Total

Open52.5

▼ 3

Close49.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SJSU -8.5 · closed SJSU -9.5 · moved 1 toward SJSUmodel SJSU -7.5

model SJSU -7.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 8.5–10.5 since 2023: won 72%, covered 48% (83 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 48% (244 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSJSU -8.5

CloseSJSU -9.5

Total52.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SJSU as a 9.5-point road favorite at NEV, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: NEV won 55–10 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 65 points went over 49.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 74%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.3 against an average line of 9.4; 55.7 points a game (usually 53.8). Of the 3 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UTSA @ TLSA 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-9.5	45–46	L	O52.5
Very close	TOL @ WMU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & spread	-8.5	14–20	L	U50.5
Very close	UNLV @ HAW 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & rest	-11	25–31	L	U56.5
Very close	WKU @ FIU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-11.5	41–28	W	O54.25
Very close	M-OH @ BGSU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & season form	-7	13–17	L	U45
Very close	SJSU @ HAW 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-10	35–0	W	U57
Very close	TOL @ AKR 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar situation & spread	-9.5	14–21	L	U49.5
Close	CAL @ STAN 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & rest	-6.5	27–15	W	U53.5
Close	UNM @ NMSU 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-9.5	50–40	W	O54
Close	USU @ HAW 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & rest	-10.5	41–34	L	O55

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SJSU WLLWL	4-5	44%	2-2	2-4
NEV WLWLL	3-6	33%	0-4	3-4

Venue/role: SJSU away, as favorite; NEV home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SJSU OOUOU	5-4	56%	3-6
NEV UOUUO	3-6	33%	1-8

Went over in Q4. Of 574 earlier overs in games with totals 45.5–53.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SJSU	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
NEV	1-9 10%	3-7 30%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

SJSU 8–21 NEV NEV leads · 29 games since 1948 · NEV has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 5 2024	Nevada 31 @ San José State 35	SJSU -7.5	NEV W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SJSU−6.2 →−6.1▲ 0.1#93

NEV−9.7 →−17.8▼ 8.1#129

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

SJSU

Longer bar = better

NEV

#43

Offense

◀ SJSU better

#132

#104

Defense

Even

#101

−0.4 #111

Turnovers

◀ SJSU better

−1.8 #137

68 plays #46

Pace

◀ SJSU faster

60 plays #133

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SJSU has the ball

Advantage: SJSU offense

	SJSU off	NEV def	Edge
Points / game	25.6 #81	30.1 #110	SJSU
Yards / play	6.60 #23	5.67 #82	SJSU
PPA / play	+0.19 #38	+0.16 #102	SJSU
Success rate	46% #31	45% #110	SJSU

When NEV has the ball

Advantage: SJSU defense

	NEV off	SJSU def	Edge
Points / game	14.0 #135	29.9 #106	SJSU
Yards / play	4.83 #124	6.10 #115	Even
PPA / play	−0.13 #136	+0.18 #110	SJSU
Success rate	34% #133	42% #83	SJSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

SJSU scoring against the NEV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SJSU scored	4.9 #94	10.7 #29	15.6 #60	5.3 #81	4.7 #118	10.0 #111
NEV allowed	7.6 #112	11.0 #126	18.6 #128	5.8 #80	5.8 #52	11.6 #62

NEV scoring against the SJSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NEV scored	1.3 #134	5.0 #120	6.3 #134	2.7 #132	5.0 #109	7.7 #127
SJSU allowed	6.6 #97	9.0 #101	15.6 #104	5.0 #54	9.3 #127	14.3 #108

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.