Toledo @ Miami (OH): Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2025)

Wed, Nov 12, 2025, 7:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Miami (OH) · Conference game

Weather at kickoff43°F9 mphgusts 18DryWeather watch ›

Toledo

5-4 · Power #48

▲ winner

Final

Miami (OH)

5-4 · Power #91

final

Closing spread

TOL -6.5

✓ TOL W

Total

44.5

▼ Under · 27 pts

Model before kickoff

TOL 26–19 M-OH

✓ TOL (68%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTOL -2.5

CloseTOL -6.5

Total50.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTOL -2.5

4 → TOL

CloseTOL -6.5

4 pts toward Toledo

Total

Open50.5

▼ 6

Close44.5

Down 6 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TOL -2.5 · closed TOL -6.5 · moved 4 toward TOLmodel TOL -7

model TOL -7

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 63%, covered 51% (160 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 46% (101 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTOL -2.5

CloseTOL -6.5

Total50.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TOL as a 6.5-point road favorite at M-OH, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 0 went over the total.

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This game: TOL won 24–3; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 27 points stayed under 44.5, as in 9 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 67%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

0 of 90%

Below normal · usually 50%

Overs below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: underdog by 0.1 against an average line of 5.9; 36.1 points a game (usually 53.2). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	FRES @ WYO 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar season form & rest	-6	19–24	L	P43
Very close	SDSU @ HAW 2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-6.5	6–38	L	U48
Close	USA @ UL 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-8.5	20–17	L	U47.25
Close	TOL @ WSU 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar total & rest	-1.5	7–28	L	U44.5
Close	TROY @ ARMY 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	19–0	W	U42
Close	JMU @ MRSH 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar season form & situation	-5	20–9	W	U49.25
Close	TULN @ NAVY 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & rest	-7.5	35–0	W	U49
Close	MIA @ NCSU 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & rest	-6	6–20	L	U44
Close	UAB @ FAU 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & season form	-4.75	17–24	L	U45
Close	UVA @ CAL 2025 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	31–21	W	U52.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TOL WLWLW	6-3	67%	1-3	5-3
M-OH WWWWL	6-3	67%	3-1	1-3

Venue/role: TOL away, as favorite; M-OH home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TOL UOOUO	5-4	56%	5-4
M-OH UUOOU	4-5	44%	5-4

Stayed under: it needed 18 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 55% of games with totals 40.5–48.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TOL	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%
M-OH	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

TOL 2–1 M-OH TOL leads · 3 games since 2023 · TOL has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 5 2024	Miami (OH) 20 @ Toledo 30	TOL -5.5	TOL W
Dec 2 2023	Miami (OH) 23 @ Toledo 14	TOL -6	M-OH W
Oct 21 2023	Toledo 21 @ Miami (OH) 17	TOL -2	TOL W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TOL−4.5 →+3.4▲ 7.9#56

M-OH−2.8 →−5.4▼ 2.6#86

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

TOL

Longer bar = better

M-OH

#43

Offense

◀ TOL better

#72

Defense

◀ TOL better

#48

+0.6 #29

Turnovers

Even

+0.4 #30

69 plays #40

Pace

◀ TOL faster

61 plays #130

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TOL has the ball

Even matchup

	TOL off	M-OH def	Edge
Points / game	32.9 #38	21.7 #42	Even
Yards / play	6.33 #31	4.96 #28	Even
PPA / play	+0.16 #47	+0.05 #48	Even
Success rate	44% #54	42% #72	Even

When M-OH has the ball

Advantage: TOL defense

	M-OH off	TOL def	Edge
Points / game	25.3 #84	14.6 #9	TOL
Yards / play	5.90 #57	3.84 #2	TOL
PPA / play	+0.13 #64	−0.10 #6	TOL
Success rate	42% #83	34% #7	TOL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

TOL scoring against the M-OH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TOL scored	7.3 #38	13.8 #3	21.1 #10	6.9 #47	4.9 #113	11.8 #85
M-OH allowed	2.7 #16	6.4 #46	9.1 #21	4.2 #39	8.3 #117	12.6 #80

M-OH scoring against the TOL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
M-OH scored	4.2 #106	6.6 #101	10.8 #110	7.9 #29	6.7 #68	14.6 #44
TOL allowed	3.0 #23	3.8 #10	6.8 #8	1.4 #3	6.3 #66	7.8 #12

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.