Virginia @ California: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2025)

Sat, Nov 1, 2025, 3:45 PM EDTWeek 10 · at California · Conference game

Weather at kickoff68°F4 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Virginia

7-1 · Power #32

▲ winner

Final

California

5-3 · Power #76

final

Closing spread

UVA -5.5

✓ UVA W

Total

52.5

▼ Under · 52 pts

Model before kickoff

UVA 30–24 CAL

✓ UVA (66%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUVA -3.5

CloseUVA -5.5

Total54.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUVA -3.5

2 → UVA

CloseUVA -5.5

2 pts toward Virginia

Total

Open54.5

▼ 2

Close52.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UVA -3.5 · closed UVA -5.5 · moved 2 toward UVAmodel UVA -6.5

model UVA -6.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 49% (134 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 51% (210 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUVA -3.5

CloseUVA -5.5

Total54.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UVA as a 5.5-point road favorite at CAL, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: UVA won 31–21; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 52 points stayed under 52.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 63%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.5 against an average line of 6.1; 52.1 points a game (usually 53). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	JMU @ MRSH 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & season form	-5	20–9	W	U49.25
Very close	ORST @ ASU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & rest	-7.5	31–7	W	U53.5
Very close	JMU @ GAST 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & situation	-6	42–14	W	O53
Very close	DUKE @ CAL 2025 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & total	-3.5	45–21	W	O54.5
Very close	WASH @ CAL 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-7.5	28–21	L	U54.5
Very close	TCU @ KSU 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar season form & rest	-3	28–41	L	O54.5
Very close	MIA @ NCSU 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & spread	-6	6–20	L	U44
Very close	NEB @ MINN 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & situation	-7	6–24	L	U47.5
Very close	MIZ @ ARK 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & total	-9.5	48–14	W	O53.5
Very close	USA @ TXST 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-5.5	44–52	L	O56.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UVA WWWLL	5-3	63%	1-2	3-2
CAL LWLLL	3-5	38%	1-3	2-2

Venue/role: UVA away, as favorite; CAL home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UVA OOUUU	5-3	63%	7-1
CAL UUOUO	4-4	50%	5-3

Stayed under: it needed 15 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 52% of games with totals 48.5–56.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UVA	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
CAL	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UVA−1.6 →+6.2▲ 7.8#46

CAL+3.8 →−3.4▼ 7.2#79

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

UVA

Longer bar = better

CAL

#38

Offense

◀ UVA better

#102

#59

Defense

Even

#62

+1.0 #10

Turnovers

◀ UVA better

+0.1 #62

74 plays #13

Pace

◀ UVA faster

68 plays #58

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UVA has the ball

Advantage: UVA offense

	UVA off	CAL def	Edge
Points / game	37.1 #18	24.4 #71	UVA
Yards / play	5.94 #57	5.42 #67	Even
PPA / play	+0.22 #33	+0.08 #60	UVA
Success rate	45% #44	40% #48	Even

When CAL has the ball

Advantage: UVA defense

	CAL off	UVA def	Edge
Points / game	25.0 #87	22.4 #53	UVA
Yards / play	5.05 #113	5.35 #60	UVA
PPA / play	+0.07 #101	+0.08 #59	UVA
Success rate	40% #105	41% #64	UVA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

UVA scoring against the CAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UVA scored	10.0 #10	11.8 #24	21.8 #10	7.6 #34	4.8 #110	12.4 #77
CAL allowed	4.8 #56	6.6 #59	11.4 #50	4.6 #49	6.5 #72	11.1 #55

CAL scoring against the UVA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CAL scored	7.8 #31	5.6 #114	13.4 #87	4.4 #107	6.4 #76	10.8 #100
UVA allowed	3.5 #37	8.6 #95	12.1 #65	6.4 #94	2.4 #3	8.8 #26

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.